Reopening the US economy is going to be a slow, painful process and nothing like turning a light switch back on. Economic activity and employment is going to be down significantly for a while. If there’s any good news for workers it’s that the economic activity that does occur will be more labor-intensive than it was before the coronavirus dealt such a huge blow to the economy. We’re used to the past couple of rebounds from recessions being jobless recoveries, but this one wi

Viewpoints April 19, 2020

With death rates beginning to peak in Western countries, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus crisis is moving toward the developing world. Yet bare hospitals, armies of informal workers and sprawling slums mean the poorest nations have struggled to pull down the shutters. Experiences in Asia and elsewhere suggest that limiting chaotic mass migration to rural areas can be a start. Throw in cash handouts and a concerted effort to educate and inform, and efforts to contain the virus begin to loo

Viewpoints April 17, 2020

A bond deal by South Korea’s biggest airline showed that while carriers pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic can still sell debt, they will need to pay a steep price. The fee Korean Air Lines paid underwriters to issue won notes jumped to a record 1.157percent, four times what it was charged in a similar deal in September. And an unusually numerous 15 sales managers took part in the offering this week of 600 billion won ($490 million) of debt backed by sales of future passenger tickets, a

Market April 2, 2020

Crises such as wars, depressions, natural disasters and pandemics can reveal differences in how effectively a society organizes itself. In the 1600s and 1700s, for example, Britain’s more advanced tax system allowed it to outspend Spain and France, while Prussia’s efficient army let it overcome larger opponents such as Austria. In the American Civil War, the Union’s industrial prowess allowed it to outlast and overwhelm the agrarian Confederacy. Pandemics aren’t quite th

Viewpoints April 1, 2020

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, some democracies around the world have used technology to avoid having to impose draconian mass quarantines that were common earlier this year in China. That’s reassuring -- and it’s also worrying, because the very strategies that can help fight a plague can also be abused once it’s over. Consider Taiwan, where an “electronic fence” allows local police to make regular phone calls to everyone who is home under quaranti

Viewpoints April 1, 2020

Measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 are upending every corner of economic life, bringing entire industries to a standstill across the world. What happens in the broader economy has a massive impact on the banks that oil its wheels; and financial regulators have -- rightly -- responded swiftly. The supervisors should ponder their next moves carefully, however. It is essential to soften the blow of companies and people not being able to repay their debts, as income evaporates. Lenders will

Viewpoints March 31, 2020

Pummeled by the coronavirus, China Inc. now faces another disruption: a global shortage of dollars. Chinese companies are looking at $120 billion of debt repayments this year on their US dollar denominated debt. Real estate developers and industrial companies make up three-quarters of the outstanding $233 billion of junk-rated bonds. There’s another $563 billion of higher-rated debt. The question isn’t just whether they’ll be able to pay their debt. It’s worth wondering

Viewpoints March 27, 2020

When my local supermarket opened for business at 6 a.m. the other day, I had my plan of action in place. The instant the door was unlocked, I hurried to the pharmacy aisle, where I found, to my surprise and delight, three bottles of rubbing alcohol. But now I faced a puzzle. Should I play homo economicus and buy them all? Should I follow the Lockean proviso and leave as much and as good in common for others? Torn by competing priorities, I bought two of the three bottles, leaving the third for

Viewpoints March 24, 2020

For much of the world, oil wealth is a curse. Endowed with ample reserves of hydrocarbons, the likes of Nigeria, Angola, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Venezuela frittered the benefits away. Only in the Persian Gulf has oil been a nation-building blessing. The discoveries of petroleum in the mid-20th century turned an anarchic, desperately poor region into one of the most affluent places on the planet. Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are all richer than Switzerland. Even Saudi Arabia, Bahrai

Viewpoints March 23, 2020

It would be charitable to describe the federal government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic as sloppy and uncoordinated. Thankfully, there is a model for an epic national comeback. It dates back to the weeks following the attack on Pearl Harbor in late 1941, when President Roosevelt created the War Production Board, one of the most dynamic public-private partnerships in history. The US entered World War II woefully unprepared. It possessed staggering economic power, but almost none

Viewpoints March 23, 2020

Christine Lagarde warned European leaders last week that the COVID-19 epidemic risked pushing the economy into a new 2008-style crisis. So far, the response from politicians to the president of the European Central Bank has been late and insufficient. The elements for a comprehensive response are clear: Governments should unleash a large-scale fiscal stimulus, while the ECB launches a credible and sizeable bond-buying program to ensure there is no adverse market reaction. The euro zone may even

Viewpoints March 19, 2020

As global supply chains break, airlines slash flights, borders rise within nation-states, stock exchanges convulse with fear, and recession looms over economies, from China to Germany, Australia to the United States, we can no longer doubt that we are living through extraordinary times. What remains in question, however, is our ability to comprehend them while using a vocabulary derived from decades when globalization seemed a fact of nature, like air and wind. For the coronavirus signals a rad

Viewpoints March 18, 2020

Like the eye of a hurricane, the epicenter of coronavirus disease COVID-19 has shifted from Asia to Europe, bringing with it a rising toll of infections, deaths and economic damage. After a messy few weeks in which the region’s leaders seemed incapable of hitting on a common response to the crisis -- which has hit health care, consumer confidence and financial markets all at once -- last weekend marked a turning point. France and Spain announced draconian steps, similar to those seen in v

Viewpoints March 18, 2020