As the number of COVID-19 cases starts to rise again in many states, the question is whether residents of those states will tolerate another lockdown. I used to think so, but it is increasingly clear that Americans have become comfortable with a remarkably high number of casualties. There is a mechanism of social conformity at work here. Most people will not tolerate a small risk to their lives to dine out, for instance -- but they might if all their friends are doing the same. The appeal of a

Viewpoints July 7, 2020

US President Donald Trump is furious at Germany for many reasons, not all of them fathomable. In phone conversations with Angela Merkel, he’s allegedly called the German chancellor “stupid” and denigrated her in “near-sadistic” tones. Though this be madness, there is -- on rare occasions -- method in it. One such case is Nord Stream 2. It is an almost-finished gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany, running next to the original Nord Stream. &l

Viewpoints July 7, 2020

As much as guns and gadgets, pathogens have written history in the Americas. Smallpox cut through the Aztecs long before Hernan Cortes’s troops marched into Tenochtitlan. Yellow fever stopped Napoleon in Haiti, laying the way for the island’s independence. Epidemiologist Arnoldo Gabaldon liberated more than half of Venezuelan territory from malaria, launching the pestilent nation into the 20th century. So what will be the legacy of coronavirus in the latitudes where it has found suc

Viewpoints July 6, 2020

Kimberly Guilfoyle, the girlfriend of President Trump’s eldest son and a top fund-raising official for the Trump re-election campaign, tested positive for the coronavirus on Friday before a Fourth of July event at Mount Rushmore, New York Times reported, citing a person familiar with her condition. Trump campaign later confirmed Guilfoyle has contracted the virus. Ms. Guilfoyle traveled to South Dakota with Mr. Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., in anticipation of attending a huge firewo

World News July 4, 2020

The US’ decline started with little things that people got used to. Americans drove past empty construction sites and didn’t even think about why the workers weren’t working, then wondered why roads and buildings took so long to finish. They got used to avoiding hospitals because of the unpredictable and enormous bills they’d receive. They paid 6 percent real-estate commissions, never realizing that Australians were paying 2 percent. They grumbled about high taxes and hig

Viewpoints July 2, 2020

Despite deleveraging rhetoric, risks lurking in China’s financial system are coming to the fore and starting to hurt a highly sensitive group: repressed savers. Eroding investor confidence and blockages in the allocation of money could become far more dangerous than previously. Beijing has few options but to backpedal on rules meant to clamp down on the unruly underbelly of its banking system. The problems range from hotspots in the nearly $3 trillion shadow lending industry to wealth man

Viewpoints July 1, 2020

Is the global monetary order ready for another reboot? In the 1960s, Japan and Europe exported their way to post-World War II prosperity under the fixed exchange rates of the Bretton Woods agreement. The US went off the gold standard in 1971, but the established way of doing things didn’t collapse. Thirty years later, China essayed the role of being the world economy’s periphery and selling cheap widgets to a revamped core -- the West and Japan -- with the help of an undervalued ex

Viewpoints June 30, 2020

The European Union has many problems, but the most fundamental may be the rift between northern and southern member states and the even deeper fault line running between west and east. That latter fissure is especially dangerous because, unlike the largely economic one between north and south, it tears at the EU’s core values, including democracy, freedom of the press and the rule of law. For the past decade, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has been flouting these principles

Viewpoints June 30, 2020

Russia’s president has not had a good pandemic. But Vladimir Putin is staging a comeback, with a touch of foreign-policy grandstanding, a dash of military theater and a plebiscite on constitutional reforms that could allow him to stay in power until 2036. The vote will confirm changes already approved by parliament in March, and it didn’t have to happen now. Even so, the Kremlin pushed ahead and Putin wants citizens to come out in large numbers to back the measures. With Russia stil

Viewpoints June 26, 2020

Until recently, it seemed like the contentious debate over lockdowns was over. By the end of May, many states were defying the warnings of public-health experts, reopening restaurants, retail and public spaces. The huge protests against police brutality and racism reinforced the notion that keeping Americans confined to their homes was a lost cause. Now, even San Francisco, one of the first cities to issue a stay-at-home order, is proceeding with a phased reopening of businesses and public space

Viewpoints June 25, 2020

The European Commission’s plan for a 750 billion-euro ($842 billion) fund to deal with the economic consequences of the pandemic is a quantum leap in Europe’s crisis response. Yet, for all the good intentions, political leaders still have to agree on the details of the scheme. The European Council -- a gathering of prime ministers and presidents -- will meet Friday to discuss the plan, although most observers only expect a breakthrough to happen in July. The EU is still wrestling wi

Viewpoints June 24, 2020

On Tuesday morning, cars and pedestrians lined up for free COVID-19 tests in south Minneapolis, six blocks from where George Floyd was killed last month. As protests flared after his death, Minnesota’s Department of Health had set up the testing site and encouraged demonstrators to visit in hopes of stemming a potential new outbreak. Long lines at this center and three others in the Twin Cities suggest that, far from being complacent about the risks of taking to the streets in a pandemic,

Viewpoints June 23, 2020

As long as the pandemic rages, the world’s leaders are understandably preoccupied with the threat of disease. But there are other dangers to humanity that demand attention. One of the most frightening is nuclear war. Unfortunately, the risk of that happening keeps rising. The headline numbers are misleading. Yes, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads decreased slightly last year, according to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But that’s on

Viewpoints June 22, 2020

What’s worse than two populous, nuclear-armed countries killing each other’s soldiers? Two populous, nuclear-armed countries letting their longer-term relationship wither. Fighting along the Chinese-Indian border on the Tibetan plateau hasn’t come out of the blue. Ties, never solid, are increasingly becoming a casualty of the way New Delhi is being drawn into the wider rivalry between Beijing and Washington. If trade and investment suffer as a result, the deteriorating relatio

Viewpoints June 22, 2020

Mexico, India and Pakistan are among the countries that have hit record numbers of new coronavirus cases in recent days, as drastic regulations that kept streets empty and people apart are lifted. It’s a similar story in states like Texas, Florida and California. In Beijing, a cluster of cases linked to a wholesale market caused alarm over the weekend. Should that mean a return to lockdowns? US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says no. Reality will be less categorical. Take Pakistan. Of

Viewpoints June 17, 2020