It’s possible that someone reading this column now, in July 2018, will be alive to see the resolution of a $1 billion bet between Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois at Chicago professor of public health, and Steven Austad, chairman of biology at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.　Eighteen years ago, the two friends began their discussion on an issue that long has intrigued scientists and laymen alike: What is the limit of the human life span? Given that advances in medicine and nutrit

July 23, 2018

It’s hardly a surprise that Donald Trump broke with longstanding presidential practice and publicly criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates.　Trump told CNBC on Thursday that he was “not thrilled” with signals from the Fed that it planned to raise interest rates. “I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up,” he said. The White House issued a statement saying the president “respects the independence of the Fed,” but he seemed t

July 23, 2018

Monsoon rains battered down on Manila this week as a tropical storm -- the ninth this year -- howled nearby. Schools, courts and the senate were shut for two days; roads were flooded; public transport was affected. 　It could have been worse.　That the Philippine capital is one big ocean wave away from disaster isn’t news to climate scientists or economists. After analyzing 393 cyclone-vulnerable coastal cities in 31 countries, World Bank economists have concluded that 40 percent of the burden of

July 23, 2018

In the US and other developed countries, there are three basic philosophies of macroeconomic stabilization. Each of them was present in some form during the Great Depression, and each survives to this day.　The first is Keynesianism, which centers on fiscal stimulus, mainly in the form of increased government spending. The second is monetarism, which holds that getting economies out of recession is the job of the central bank, which can lower interest rates, engage in quantitative easing or ease

July 22, 2018

No country’s culture is static. Many, even some scholars in the field, often make the mistake of referring to culture as if it were some monolithic constant that persists from one generation to the next. Nothing could be further from the truth. Take, for example, the culture of young Korean adults.Joseon-era Korean culture was characterized by Confucian ideals: most notably, the emphasis on family. Filial piety and the willingness to sacrifice for one’s family were considered great virtues. Even

July 22, 2018

At least we know Donald Trump is not a Manchurian candidate. His proclivities for US enemies are exuberantly open, naively uninformed and boldly anti-American.　Trump is, as conservative columnist George Will wrote after the jaw-dropping Vladimir Putin-victory-in-Helsinki summit, “this sad, embarrassing wreck of a man.”　And that was before Trump tried to “walk back” his insistence that he believed Putin’s denial of interference in US elections over the unanimous finding by 17 American intelligenc

July 22, 2018

There’s no chance China will cut its trade surplus with the US in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. For starters, Washington has made no specific demand to which Beijing can respond. But its efforts may have an unexpected side effect: a debt crisis in China.　The 25 percent additional tariffs on exports of machinery and electronics looked, at first blush, like a stealth tax on offshoring. The focus on categories like semiconductors and nuclear components, in which US-owned manu

July 19, 2018

How’s this for a thought experiment the day after President Donald Trump provoked bipartisan disgust over his performance with Russian President Vladimir Putin: Try to think charitably and ascribe rational, noncorrupt motives to political actors.　Looking at domestic politics, Trump may simply think that any acknowledgment on his part of Russian efforts to elect him discredits his presidency. Looking internationally, it would be possible to explain Trump’s behavior as an expression of a radically

July 19, 2018

It’s the go-to measure of an economy. But sometimes gross domestic product doesn’t tell you much.　A glance at China’s second-quarter GDP, released Monday, might suggest things are holding up pretty well in the world’s second-largest economy. The 6.7 percent increase from a year ago -- just barely below the prior period -- points to a China that weathered the early skirmishes of a trade war, continued its transition to a consumption-driven economy and isn’t suffering too much from a state campaig

July 19, 2018

US President Donald Trump was doing pretty well in Helsinki, really, laying out a modest but achievable agenda for improving US-Russia relations. And then came the final question about whether Trump believed his own intelligence chiefs or Russian President Vladimir Putin -- and in his weird, waffling answer, you could almost hear the fabric of his presidency rip at the seam. Jonathan Lemire of the Associated Press was the reporter who asked Trump bluntly: “who do you believe” about Russian elect

July 18, 2018

Fifty years ago this month, in the midst of the Cold War, nations began signing an international treaty to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. Today, as artificial intelligence and machine learning reshape every aspect of our lives, the world confronts a challenge of similar magnitude and it needs a similar response.　There is a danger in pushing the parallel between nuclear weapons and AI too far. But the greater risk lies in ignoring the consequences of unleashing technologies whose goals are n

July 18, 2018