[Leonid Bershidsky] Serbia and Kosovo may be ready to end their feud

An agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to settle a long-standing dispute over their mutual border is becoming more than an abstract idea. The countries’ leaders have held initial talks on a so-called border correction, a process that could offer a way to ease their accession to the European Union. The conversation went well enough for Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo President Hashim Thaci to appear together over the weekend at a news conference in the Austrian town of Alpbach.　The

Aug. 30, 2018

[Volker Perthes] Sustaining Europe’s security trip

Despite the tensions generated by Brexit, the leaders of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have stood together in disputes between the European Union and the United States. If their unity can be sustained, Europe’s “big three” (E3) will serve the EU very well in a tumultuous future.French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and UK Prime Minister Theresa May seem to have read from the same script regarding US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear

Aug. 30, 2018

[Shuli Ren] Grab a shovel, China’s ready to build again

Build, baby, build. Infrastructure spending in China is heating up again. But this time, the government wants help. Beijing entered the year with a tough stance on debt, tightening its purse strings to head off the risk of a Minsky moment. The Ministry of Finance lowered its fiscal deficit target to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product, the first cut since 2013, and went so far as to halt all government-funded work in Xinjiang, an area bigger than France. As a result, infrastructure growth grou

Aug. 29, 2018

[Leonid Bershidsky] Putin won’t be swayed by hunger strikes

Last week, the hunger strike by Ukrainian film director Oleg Sentsov in a Russian prison crossed the 100-day mark. That exceeds the 66-day protest that caused the death of Irish Republican Army member Bobby Sands in 1981, and is close to the length of the 1986 fast by Soviet dissident Anatoly Marchenko, who stopped at 117 days, but died 10 days later.　Sentsov’s decision to refuse food until Russia frees all of its Ukrainian political prisoners (various lists contain between 64 and 71 names) has

Aug. 29, 2018

[Jeffrey Frankel] The depth of the next US recession

The US economy is doing well. But the next recession could be very bad.The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 reached 4.1 percent -- the highest level since 2014, when it was 4.9 percent. Another year of growth will match the record 10-year expansion of the 1990s. Add to that low unemployment, and things are looking good.But this cannot continue forever. Given a massive corporate debt and a soaring US stock market, one possible trigger for a do

Aug. 29, 2018

[Tyler Cowen] When and why the world went wrong

What exactly has gone wrong, and when and why? The open, democratic world order based on egalitarian rights and the rule of law -- liberalism, for lack of a better term -- is under increasing pressure. The signs, serious and less so, are everywhere.　The trend has now hit so many nations that the explanation has to be global. Social media are frequently cited as a driving force, but I would like to consider an alternative or perhaps complementary possibility for the breakdown of liberalism: As Wo

Aug. 28, 2018

[Noah Smith] Japan’s baby bust could be an experimentation

Japan’s population is shrinking. There are about 127 million people in the country today, but by 2050, this is projected to drop to about 102 million -- and to keep falling thereafter.　This will cause all sorts of problems. A shrinking population is also an aging one -- a smaller base of workers supporting a larger number of retirees means lower living standards for everyone. An older population also tends to be less productive. Additionally, a shrinking population means a shrinking domestic mar

Aug. 28, 2018

[Andrew Polk] China’s growth woes aren’t going away

US officials seem to think they have the upper hand in trade talks with China because its economy is struggling. Judging by the string of measures they’ve recently announced to shore up growth, Chinese officials may privately agree. The trouble is, such measures aren’t going to work as fast or as well as markets seem to think they will.China’s growth woes are homegrown, not the result of US tariffs. Two factors are largely to blame: the government’s concerted effort over the last five quarters t

Aug. 28, 2018

[Mark Buchanan] Climate change’s long-term fix has short-term cost

Global warming is getting a little scary, as its consequences emerge more quickly than most scientists had expected in soaring global temperatures, unprecedented wildfires and many other effects. This year is on target to be the fourth hottest ever, only just behind the three previous years. Meanwhile, humanity has made very little progress in taking action, with CO2 emissions higher now than ever before, having actually increased 60 percent over the past 25 years -- all while we’ve been fully a

Aug. 27, 2018

[Mac Margolis] Cuba’s new constitution won’t fix economy

For anyone longing for the clarity of the Cold War, Cuba has been an enduring inspiration. Forget the gringo-sponsored Washington Consensus, messy electoral democracy or wishy-washy pink tide. The Caribbean island has remained a single-family regime serving straight-up 20th century communism.　Yet to gauge by the commotion among the leadership in Havana, those comforting assurances are gone. The Castros are out, private property is in, and the United States is no longer the enemy -- just a necess

Aug. 27, 2018

[Leonid Bershidsky] Putin hates you? Then put less data online

Microsoft’s announcement that it has taken down a number of fake domains set up by the same cyberespionage group that allegedly hacked the Democratic National Committee in 2016 shows Russia’s interest in US politics isn’t ebbing. More importantly, it highlights that the methods these malicious actors have been using since well before the 2016 US election can still be effective.　In a blog post signed by Microsoft President Brad Smith, the company said it had obtained a court order to take over si

Aug. 27, 2018

commentary-Leonid Bershidsky

US can’t bring Russia ‘to its knees’by Leonid BershidskyThe US sanctions policy against Russia is evolving from trying to nudge the Kremlin in a desired direction to inflicting maximum pain. This is a slippery slope, and it’s time to consider the most extreme consequences for Russia, as well as the US and its allies.　During a Senate Banking Committee hearing last week, a telling exchange took place between Sen. John Kennedy, R-Louisiana, and the Trump administration’s senior sanctions officials.

Aug. 26, 2018

[Ann McFeatters] Sooner or later, everyone associated with Trump gets hurt

If you are not personal friends with Donald Trump, be glad. Be very glad.　Because it is dangerous. Very dangerous.　The first member of the US House of Representatives to endorse Trump for president, Rep. Chris Collins, R-New York, was indicted for insider trading while at a White House picnic.　The second member of the House to endorse Trump, Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-California, has been indicted for alleged misuse of campaign funds along with his wife (including spending donated funds on a $600 air

Aug. 26, 2018