At the military headquarters here (Kabul) where commanders oversee America’s longest war, an official explains in one sentence the US-led coalition’s bottom-line objective: “Peace is a situation where we can leave, and we don’t have to come back.”But how will the United States move toward this endgame, as US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad nears conclusion of his secret peace negotiations with the Taliban jihadists that America has been fighting for 18 years? Afghan

Viewpoints July 24, 2019

Here’s the most intriguing fact about Iran’s apparent seizure Saturday of a small oil tanker about 385 kilometers northwest of here: Thus far, it has brought only a muted response from the United Arab Emirates, in whose waters the vessel had been operating, and from the United States, which is quietly organizing a multinational effort to protect shipping in the Persian Gulf. If this were a boxing match, you’d say that the United States is trying to let Iran punch itself out. Th

Viewpoints July 18, 2019

The agonizing fact for Democrats this summer is that US President Donald Trump appears to be gaining ground on domestic and foreign policy, while his potential challengers are quarreling and mostly spinning their wheels. Trump is taunting allies and defying Congress -- and seemingly getting away with it. He isn’t just rewriting the political rulebook, he’s tossing it aside. And the painful fact is that the Democrats haven’t figured out a way to stop his forward momentum, even t

Viewpoints July 14, 2019

Democratic candidates for president should get smart about America’s confrontation with Iran: Rather than seek only to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, they should also endorse a broader, new negotiation that addresses Iran’s meddling in the region and removes sanctions against Tehran.The goal should be “JCPOA 2.0, Plus,” argues Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. That’s a reference to the acronym for the 2015 accord, k

Viewpoints July 11, 2019

In dealing with North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un, President Trump should remember that he is a snake handler, not a snake charmer. (The same advice applies to Kim, but we’ll leave that to pundits in Pyongyang.)The baseline: Kim is a modernizing autocrat who believes his survival will be enhanced by the economic development he wants, in addition to the nuclear weapons he has. If he has decided to resume negotiations, it’s to remove sanctions, put his economy in overdrive and,

Viewpoints July 3, 2019

Sometimes in foreign policy, the best course of action for a powerful country is the most limited, at least visibly. That may be the case now in America’s confrontation with a cornered but potentially venomous Iran. The US-Iran showdown is a classic test between a strong nation and a much weaker one. An embattled Tehran has seemingly tried to goad America, shooting down a US spy drone, allegedly mining ships near the Persian Gulf, and allowing proxies to fire missiles at civilian airports

Viewpoints June 30, 2019

The most important variable in the current Persian Gulf confrontation is time. The Trump administration wants to play a long game, to draw the sanctions tourniquet ever tighter. Iran needs to play a short game, to escape the American chokehold before it becomes fatal. This inner dynamic helps explain this past month’s events in the Gulf -- Iran’s steady escalation of deniable strikes and President Trump’s relatively restrained military response. Each side has a different playbo

Viewpoints June 23, 2019

President Trump has a credibility problem at a time when his confrontation with Iran is moving toward a dangerous test. “There is no capital in the bank” in terms of trust with major European and Asian allies, said one former senior defense official. “We’ve managed to isolate ourselves, rather than Iran. This is a strategy-free zone.”Adding to the sense of vertigo surrounding US defense policy was the withdrawal Tuesday of Patrick Shanahan as Trump’s selection

Viewpoints June 20, 2019

As Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of “unprovoked attacks” near the Strait of Hormuz, video screens behind him showed thick black smoke billowing from the two tankers that were struck Thursday. It was the dramatic imagery that sometimes precedes armed conflict. Pompeo didn’t offer hard evidence, and Iran denied the attacks.The US response in the escalating confrontation with Iran, for now, seems to be continued pressure short of war. “Our policy remains an eco

Viewpoints June 16, 2019

President Trump spoke the right words in commemorating the 75th anniversary of D-Day, but did he mean them? So far, his presidency has been about defying the postwar order that was based on shared values and global partnership, rather than cementing its legacy. Trump spoke here Thursday at what he rightly described as “freedom’s altar,” the burial site for nearly 10,000 Americans who died in the 1944 invasion of Normandy and in subsequent battles that ultimately led to Nazi Ger

Viewpoints June 9, 2019

President Trump’s love-hate relationship with Britain has been on display in London this week. This ambivalence takes an especially bizarre turn in comments by the president and his supporters about British intelligence, historically America’s most important secret partner. After bashing prominent British figures on his way to London, Trump was on good behavior Tuesday, after a glittering state dinner the night before with the queen. He paid ritual homage to the special alliance betw

Viewpoints June 6, 2019

One of the least-discussed but perhaps most consequential comments by special counsel Robert Mueller in his appearance before reporters this week was his blunt counterintelligence assessment: “Russian intelligence officers, who are part of the Russian military, launched a concerted attack on our political system.” Here’s why this judgment is so important: The US military, backed by Mueller’s findings and those of the intelligence community, has responded by developing a t

Viewpoints June 2, 2019

Huawei’s name is often translated in English as “Chinese excellence.” The Trump administration last week embarked on a campaign to rebrand the tech giant, in effect, as a “Chinese threat” and check its expansion in the West. The Huawei assault may be the Trump administration’s most important long-term strategic decision, because it confronts China’s technological challenge to America head on. The goal is to prevent Huawei from dominating 5G wireless comm

Viewpoints May 23, 2019

In any tense military confrontation, diplomats start looking for an “off ramp” that could de-escalate tensions. But in the current standoff between the United States and Iran, it’s hard to find any such exit route. The US-Iran faceoff is one of those odd situations where both players appear eager to set off sparks, although neither seems to want a raging fire. They seem comfortable in a halfway zone of conflict, where nations use force in deniable ways across different domains, hoping they don’t

Viewpoints May 19, 2019

President Trump has styled himself in foreign policy as the Great Disrupter. And for a time, this unpredictable approach served him reasonably well. Leaders from China, North Korea and Iran found themselves off balance, and they sometimes made what looked like concessions. Trump’s problem is that, after two years, foreign nations seem to have figured him out. Rather than crafting quick deals that Trump could tout as wins, these adversaries have played a waiting game. They appear to sense in Trum

Viewpoints May 16, 2019