When you discount the rhetorical overkill, the most surprising thing about Donald Trump’s address to the United Nations Tuesday was how conventional it was. He supported human rights and democracy; he opposed rogue regimes; he espoused a global community of strong, sovereign nations. Pretty shocking stuff.Because he’s Trump, the zingers got the headlines: He repeated his childish, snarky (but sort of funny) playground denunciation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. “Rocket Man is on a suicide m

Viewpoints Sept. 21, 2017

The Trump administration, already struggling with a big nuclear problem in North Korea, is about to raise another one by questioning the implementation of the nuclear agreement with Iran.A senior administration official said that President Trump will share his concerns about Iranian compliance with global leaders gathering next week for the United Nations General Assembly. The official said Trump wants tighter inspection of Iranian facilities and a re-examination of the “sunset clause” that woul

Viewpoints Sept. 17, 2017

How can news organizations avoid the trap that President Trump has laid for them in his attacks on the media as a one-sided “opposition party” that caters to anti-Trump elites and purveys “fake news” to readers and viewers?Part of the answer is simply for journalists to keep doing their jobs, aggressively and fairly. We’re not in the business of making friends, but of holding powerful people and institutions accountable. And ultimately, it’s only this feisty, independent voice that will preserve

Viewpoints Sept. 14, 2017

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has often been the silent man in Trump’s foreign policy team. But out of the spotlight, he appears to be crafting a broad strategy aimed at working with China to resolve the North Korea crisis and with Russia to stabilize Syria and Ukraine.The Tillerson approach focuses on personal diplomacy, in direct contacts with Chinese and Russian leaders, and through private channels to North Korea. His core strategic assumption is that if the US can subtly manage its relat

Viewpoints Sept. 11, 2017

When today’s historians look at the confrontation between the United States and North Korea, they’re likely to hear echoes of ultimatums, bluffs and botched messages that accompanied conflicts of the past, often with catastrophic consequences. “The one thing that’s certain when you choose war as a policy is that you don’t know how it will end,” says Mark Stoler, a diplomatic and military historian at the University of Vermont. This fog of uncertainty should be a caution for policymakers now in d

Viewpoints Sept. 6, 2017

After weeks of belligerent rhetoric, North Korea took a pause Tuesday. But where is the mercurial Kim Jong-un headed next? US officials are debating whether he may want direct talks with Washington about a formal treaty to replace the 1953 armistice agreement that ended the Korean War.The US has been pursuing a dual path, threatening military conflict (semi-believably because of President Trump‘s verbal thunderbolts) while also urging stabilization of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. The diplom

Viewpoints Aug. 17, 2017

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has defiance in his blood. It’s said his grandfather once asked what would happen if America defeated North Korea in war, to which his father answered: “If we lose, I will be sure to destroy the Earth. What good is the Earth without North Korea?”President Trump has decided to confront what’s probably the most reckless, risk-taking regime on the planet. His hope for a diplomatic solution depends on convincing North Korea and China that he’s ready for the “fire and

Viewpoints Aug. 13, 2017

The North Korean nuclear threat is a “hinge” moment for the US and China, and for the new international order both nations say they want. If Washington and Beijing manage to stay together in dealing with Pyongyang, the door opens on a new era in which China will play a larger and more responsible role in global affairs, commensurate with its economic power. If the great powers can’t cooperate, the door will slam shut -- possibly triggering a catastrophic military conflict on the Korean Peninsula

Viewpoints Aug. 9, 2017

Here’s a contrarian thought: President Trump had the right instinct to insist that China help resolve the nightmare problem of North Korea. A peaceful solution is impossible without help from the other great power in East Asia.As Trump nears the threshold of a military crisis with North Korea, he needs to sustain this early intuition -- and not be driven into actions that may look tough but would leave every player worse off. The template hasn’t really changed from the first Korean War in 1950:

Viewpoints Aug. 3, 2017

If the ghosts who inhabit the walls of the CIA could talk, they would tell Director Mike Pompeo to be careful. The agency is entering a danger zone where a White House in turmoil wants the CIA to take aggressive action overseas, but hasn’t developed the clear strategy or political support needed to sustain it.Pompeo is an activist, an exuberant politician with a flair for delivering one-liners. He’s a risk-taker, who wants the agency to be more aggressive both in collecting information and using

Viewpoints July 28, 2017

The Chinese government, subtle masters of propaganda, seem to have discovered a Sun Tzu formula for taming dissent on the internet: The best strategy may not be to confront critics directly, but to lull or distract them with a tide of good news.This intriguing argument is suggested by a recent article in the American Political Science Review titled “How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, Not Engaged Argument.” With complex data, it supports a simple t

Viewpoints July 23, 2017