As 2017 wraps up and 2018 beckons, it‘s worth reviewing what we forecast for China in the year now ending, and to cast ahead for what themes might play out over the next 12 months. After this week’s meeting of Communist Party leaders at the Central Economic Work Conference, we can expect their targets and objectives for 2018. And these meetings have great import: It was the 2015 meeting that started the ongoing “supply-side reform” campaign.Last year we focused on a couple of points. First, watc

Viewpoints Dec. 27, 2017

It’s possible that more than half of the US’ trade deficit is a mirage -- an artifact of corporate shenanigans designed to avoid taxes.　Official statistics say that the US trade deficit is about 3 percent of gross domestic product -- smaller than in the 2000s, but still historically large.But a recent Goldman Sachs note about tax reform makes the startling claim that the real trade deficit is much smaller -- less than 1.5 percent. If this claim is right, the trade deficit has shrunk by more than

Viewpoints Dec. 26, 2017

Who is the leader of the free world? Important as the question sounds, I’m beginning to wonder if it’s better left unanswered.The US president is no longer the obvious choice. Even the new US National Security Strategy, filled with bombastic statements such as “the whole world is lifted by America’s renewal and the re-emergence of American leadership,” acknowledges growing competition among powers. And of course “America first” is the slogan of a national, not a global, leader.So who, if not Don

Viewpoints Dec. 21, 2017

Reviving manufacturing has become a prime policy objective for national leaders from Washington to Beijing to New Delhi. We can debate whether chasing factories is worth the effort in the 21st century, but not the difficulty of building and maintaining a robust industrial sector in the face of relentless global competition and technological change.At least one country seems to have figured out how to do just that, however, and a highly unexpected one: Japan.Factories churning out cars, chips and

Viewpoints Dec. 21, 2017

Over the past few weeks, people in Beijing have been riveted by the so-called migrant “clean-out” -- the government’s attempt to evict tens of thousands of migrant workers from their homes in the poorer parts of the city. What’s not being discussed, however, is how the crackdown could threaten one of the government’s other main priorities: managing debt.　In China, mobility is legally restricted according to a household registration system, called the hukou. Chinese citizens receive an urban or r

Viewpoints Dec. 19, 2017

Despite a US unemployment rate that’s at its lowest level in 17 years, gloomy types manage to see dark omens.Some, especially those shaped by the inflationary period in the late 1970s, fear that when the labor market achieves a state of full employment, as it may have already, we will see not just higher wages, but also an inflationary spiral that could get out of hand without a rapid tightening of monetary policy.　Other skeptics, enamored by new technologies like robots, artificial intelligence

Viewpoints Dec. 18, 2017

Democrats won a special Senate election in deeply conservative Alabama, narrowing the Republicans’ slim majority in the chamber, and likely generating political panic and infighting among scared Republicans.　 Doug Jones, a former federal prosecutor, became the first Democrat to win an Alabama Senate seat in a quarter century. He defeated Roy Moore, a former state Supreme Court justice whom multiple women said had sexually assaulted or harassed them years ago when they were teenagers.　The result

Viewpoints Dec. 14, 2017

With Uber’s problems grabbing all the headlines, it’s easy to overlook the fact that the other great “sharing economy” company, Airbnb, is also having issues caused by an overaggressive expansion and a tendency to ignore rules, even if they’re reasonable. Because of these issues, usage of the service may be nearing its peak.　Paris, Airbnb’s second biggest city worldwide after London, is threatening to sue the US company unless it removes all the listings for rentals not registered with the city

Viewpoints Dec. 14, 2017

This weekend, residents of the western Indian state of Gujarat began voting in an election whose outcome should‘ve been a foregone conclusion. Prime Minister Narendra Modi served for 12 years as Gujarat’s chief minister and remains a hugely popular figure there. His political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, has ruled the state uninterrupted for more than two decades, dominating all forms of political, cultural and even social life. The opposition Congress is derided there as a “party of Musli

Viewpoints Dec. 12, 2017

Here are two certainties about the Trump-Russia investigation: It won’t end soon. It will get uglier.　A new shoe drops almost daily in special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe. First, former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying and agreed to cooperate. Then the White House changed its story (again) on what President Donald Trump knew after he was first advised in January that Flynn posed security problems.Last week came news that Mueller had subpoenaed financial records

Viewpoints Dec. 12, 2017