[J. Kyle Bass] Trump shouldn’t take the easy way out over China

When it comes to the trade talks with China, President Donald Trump and his negotiators have more leverage than any US administration has ever had. Chinese policymakers are desperate for a trade truce with the US in order to avoid more damage to China’s economy by further pressuring its trade surplus and export industries.There is speculation that Trump has told his negotiators to “get a deal done” in order to put an end to recent market volatility, but that would mean forgoing a historic opport

Feb. 12, 2019

[Hussein Ibish] What Iran means to Arab world

Iran has represented many things to many people during its 40 years of Islamic revolution. To the Arab world that surrounds it today, it’s both a danger and an excuse.Arab reaction to the 1979 Iranian revolution was split from the onset, and still is. Arab governments, particularly in the Gulf region reacted in a panic, hurriedly forming the now barely functional Gulf Cooperation Council for collective self-defense.The Arab states of North Africa, notably Egypt, barely noticed the upheaval in Te

Feb. 11, 2019

[Jonathan Bernstein] Trump wants vacancies in his cabinet lineup

Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis announced his resignation on Dec. 20. He left the job at the end of the year. That was seven weeks ago, and President Donald Trump has not nominated a permanent replacement.How rare is that? There have only been two acting defense secretaries since the department began in 1947. In 1973, President Richard Nixon nominated James Schlesinger to replace Elliot Richardson, who was confirmed as attorney general a few weeks later. But Schlesinger was not confirme

Feb. 11, 2019

[Leonid Bershidsky] In Finland, money can buy you happiness

The first results of Finland’s two-year experiment with a universal basic income are in, and if they’re confirmed by further research, they will probably hurt the unconditional income cause. The trial run showed that “money for nothing” makes people happier, but doesn’t inspire them to find work any more than traditional unemployment benefits would.The Finnish experiment, conducted in 2017 and 2018 by Kela, the country’s social insurance institution, was extremely important for world policymaker

Feb. 11, 2019

[Mihir Sharma] Even the right American is wrong for World Bank

In many ways, David Malpass, whom US President Donald Trump nominated to head the World Bank, is an unsurprising choice. He’s a senior Treasury official overseeing international affairs. Plus, his background absolutely screams “Trump nominee”: He isn’t a woman. He is an outspoken critic of the institution he is now to head. And he has a controversial Wall Street background, as well as some embarrassing calls in his past.　Ironically, there’s a germ of a good idea in Malpass’ appointment. Some of

Feb. 10, 2019

[Lionel Laurent] Emmanuel Macron is happy to fight with Italy

Emmanuel Macron has followed the old adage: Never waste a good crisis.　As relations with Italy go from bad to toxic, the French president has taken the unprecedented step of recalling his ambassador from Italy -- the kind of diplomatic spat that doesn’t usually happen between big EU member states. It’s calculated to embarrass Luigi Di Maio, Italy’s deputy prime minister and leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, who brazenly met with the yellow vest protesters on French soil.　But i

Feb. 10, 2019

[Ann McFeatters] Our role model in the White House

All over America, teens have a new role model. Become president and you only have to work an hour or two a day. The rest is “Executive Time.”　You can play golf nearly 50 percent of the time. You can watch your favorite shows, tweet to your heart’s content, insult opponents at will.　You don’t even have to get up early to walk down the hall to the office.　You don’t have to read briefing papers -- someone will sum them up for you. If the briefers are boring, you can dismiss them until next week, ne

Feb. 10, 2019

[David Ignatius] Stumbling way to Middle East retreat

Iraqi President Barham Salih measured his words in a telephone interview from Baghdad on Monday. He didn’t want to worsen a quarrel with President Trump over US access to an air base in western Iraq. But Iraqi politics is fragile, and ill-considered statements by American presidents can have big consequences. “I appreciate what the US has done to help Iraq,” Salih told me. “We honor that sacrifice. But this success in Iraq is precarious and should not be unduly burdened. It could easily unravel.

Feb. 7, 2019

[Eli Lake] Just say no to negotiations with strongman Maduro

As the crisis in Venezuela enters its third week, many well-intentioned observers are seeking a middle way. To prevent civil war, they say, the opposition and dictator should compromise.　Mexico and Uruguay have offered to mediate the conflict between strongman Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaido, whom most of the Western Hemisphere regards as Venezuela’s president. Greece has also said it supports negotiations. Two well-respected economists identified as “experts in Latin America” are recommending an

Feb. 7, 2019

[Arvind Subramanian & Josh Felman] Braching for the coming China shock

In September 2018, we argued that China’s economic and foreign policies were defying the “laws” of economics and geopolitics, and warned that the situation could not last. Since then, our assessment has been borne out, and our concerns have deepened.Until recently, China had been able to pursue a unique development path, owing to the government’s far-reaching control over the economy (and society more generally). But those days are over. The country’s internal debts are mounting to unsustainable

Feb. 7, 2019

[Noah Smith] Wealth tax better than most alternatives

Close on the heels of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal to tax top income at 70 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has released her own big idea -- a tax of 2 percent a year on all wealth above $50 million, rising to 3 percent for those fortunes of more than $1 billion. The proposal, which would affect about 75,000 of the country’s wealthiest people, also comes with a set of measures designed to reduce avoidance and evasion.　The motivation for taxing wealth directly undoubtedly come

Feb. 6, 2019

[Trudy Rubin] Intel chiefs reveal Trump’s slipping grip on keeping America safe

After slamming his intelligence chiefs as “passive and naive” and telling them to “go back to school,” US President Donald Trump tried to paper over his Twitter tantrum Wednesday.　Facing sharp criticism for such a public attack -- unprecedented for a US president -- Trump now claims “the media” distorted the testimony of top US intelligence chiefs before the Senate Intelligence Committee -- where they sharply diverged from Trump on the ranking and nature of the most urgent security threats.　Ther

Feb. 6, 2019