[Jeffrey Frankel] Will the virus trigger global recession?

At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9 percent to 2.3 percent in the United States, and from 3.6 percent to 2.9 percent globally. Still, there had been no recession, and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, COVID-19, has changed all of that. Early predictions about COVID-19’s economic impact were reassuring. Similar e

Feb. 26, 2020

[Robert J. Fouser] Developing an appropriate response to COVID-19

As news of the surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Daegu spread, The Drudge Report, a sensationalist site run by investigative reporter Matt Drudge, ran a photo of a thermal imaging device monitoring people at Seoul Station. A few weeks earlier, the same site had a photo of a group of demonstrators in Seoul calling for a ban on travel from China. The linked to an article on the spread of “Sinophobia” worldwide. These images touch on an important question that has been

Feb. 25, 2020

[Kim Seong-kon] Wavering between hope and despair

The world is now experiencing an unprecedented crisis due to a new coronavirus pandemic. So is South Korea, where the number of COVID-19 patients are increasing exponentially each week. At the same time, unfortunately, we have so many other compelling issues to deal with these days. Recently, I had a long conversation with professor Lee O-young, an eminent literary critic and former minister of culture, on a variety of issues we are now facing. When our conversation drifted into North Korea&rs

Feb. 25, 2020

[Christopher Hill] Denuclearizing Pyongyang: A long road to peace

Just one year ago, it was widely believed in many quarters that the Donald Trump Administration was making progress in convincing North Korea to engage in an effort -- albeit a lengthy one -- to denuclearize. The Singapore process that started in that city only nine months before appeared to be giving birth to some real developments, ones that would surely be clear when President Trump’s Air Force One and Kim Jong-un’s retrolooking armored train both arrived in Hanoi. Just as in Si

Feb. 24, 2020

[Aryeh Neier] China’s great leap into epidemic

Before the world had any knowledge of the new coronavirus that has sparked a global panic a Wuhan-based ophthalmologist, Li Wenliang, noticed something strange in a few patients. They seemed to have contracted an unfamiliar virus that resembled severe acute respiratory syndrome, which hobbled China nearly a generation ago. A few days later, after Li had sent a warning message to several doctors in a group chat, the 34-year-old doctor was summoned by the police, who forced him to sign a letter

Feb. 24, 2020

[Hal Brands] From Japan to Britain, world loves hosting US troops

The US has a global military footprint that is second to none, and one of the most visible aspects of that footprint is a worldwide network of bases. From Japan to the UK, America’s overseas installations allow it to shape events thousands of miles from US shores. Critics have long argued that basing troops abroad also creates anti-American sentiment, making Washington’s worldwide presence toxic and self-defeating. A recent study turns this critique on its head, showing that foreign

Feb. 23, 2020

[Digital Simplicity] Consumers face dilemma of subscription economy

What is called a “subscription economy” is not so far removed from the everyday life of ordinary Koreans. A growing number of Korean consumers, especially those in their 20s, are embracing this new model that favors subscriptions over ownership. For digital services and software, this makes sense. Netflix is a case in point. Korean viewers, who once preferred downloading video files from online hard drive service operators, are signing up for the global video streaming platform. Th

Feb. 21, 2020

[Elizabeth Drew] Who can beat Trump?

The US presidential election in November is the most consequential in modern history. Whether the increasingly authoritarian, vindictive and dangerous Donald Trump wins another four years in power could define the US for a long time to come. This year’s election will be no typical struggle between two parties that differ more in degree than in kind. But first, the Democrats must select their candidate, and this time that contest is exceptionally fluid. Former Vice President Joe Biden&rs

Feb. 19, 2020

[Faye Flam] Coronavirus complacency arrives ahead of schedule

Scientific models show a reasonably high probability that the Wuhan coronavirus will accelerate in its spread outside of China. That’s concerning, to say the least. But even as the news gets darker, the tone of news coverage is swinging the wrong way, offering too much false reassurance. It’s extremely unlikely to turn into a nightmare scenario ripped from movies like “Contagion.” It isn’t an immediate threat to most people’s lives. But if it spreads widely a

Feb. 19, 2020

[Anjani Trivedi] China Inc. virus cure will make matters worse

Beijing is throwing all it’s got at the coronavirus. Less visible than the drama of quarantining communities, however, is the new pressure that the outbreak is bringing on China Inc.’s hard-up borrowers. They face $944 billion of debt maturities onshore and $90 billion offshore this year. Authorities are going back to their old playbook of spewing handouts to get them through. The costs will add billions of dollars of debt and cripple an already weakened financial system. It may be d

Feb. 18, 2020

[Kim Seong-kon] Living well until the end

Recently, I saw an American movie in which the main character says there are three words beginning with “R” that kill older people slowly. They are retirement, regret and revenge. “Reward,” too, should be included in this category. “Retirement” can be bliss for some people, and yet it is a curse for others. After retirement, some people may enjoy a restful life, but others get bored. Indeed, if you have nothing to do all day long, you will find your life bor

Feb. 18, 2020

[James Jay Carafano] The Pentagon’s three headaches

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper doesn’t have much gray hair. Just wait. He has some monumental challenges ahead. Even if Esper has the backing of the president, and Trump gets reelected, the Pentagon has a daunting to-do list. If the secretary plans to leave the common defense stronger than it was when he came aboard, he’ll have to overcome three big problems. Big Problem No. 1: All bets aren’t covered. There are three vital areas of operations for the US: Europe, Greater M

Feb. 17, 2020

[Ivo Daalder] China’s secrecy has made coronavirus crisis much worse

For eight years, China’s President Xi Jinping has trumpeted his country’s increasingly authoritarian system as a grand model for other developing countries to follow. No doubt, China has seen an extraordinary period of economic growth, which has benefited hundreds of millions in China and around the world. But authoritarianism has also come at great cost, as the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus underscores. In two months, the virus has spread throughout China and beyond. More t

Feb. 17, 2020

[Volker Perthes] Toward new Iran nuclear deal

When Iran announced in January that it would further “reduce” its commitments under the 2015 deal limiting its nuclear activities, it was not responding to the United States’ assassination of Iranian Quds Force leader Gen. Qassem Suleimani a few days earlier. But both developments reflected the escalating confrontation between Iran and the US since the summer of 2019. Any effort to safeguard the substance of the 2015 deal -- formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Act

Feb. 16, 2020

[Serendipity] Inconvenient truths laid bare by Bong Joon-ho

Yes, I have finally found someone who understands what it is like to live with a heightened sense of smell, I thought, watching Bong Joon-ho’s “Parasite.” I felt vindicated about my irritation at being hit with the sharp, pungent smell of kimchi upon opening the fridge, the boxes of odor-absorbing baking soda apparently past their expiration date. The agitation of waking up to the acrid smell of cigarette smoke wafting in through the window, thanks to an unconscionable neigh

Feb. 13, 2020

[Liam Denning] Decadent energy system needs renewal

Like many of you, I’m sure, I read Ross Douthat’s essay on “The Age of Decadence” in Sunday’s New York Times while sprawled on a chaise, picking at my smashed avo and laudanum. Stirring from the languor, I wondered: How does energy fit with this thesis? Our energy system is decadent at a fundamental level. Roughly four-fifths of what is called primary energy consumption comes from burning fossil fuels, and thermodynamics ensure the majority of that kind of “c

Feb. 13, 2020

[Noah Smith] 'Parasite' Oscars say a lot about South Korea

On Sunday night, there was widespread rejoicing when the South Korean film “Parasite” received the Academy Award for best picture along with several other awards. Not only was this the first such win for a movie in a language other than English, but to many it represented a long-sought victory for Korean popular culture. It’s not the first such victory. In the past decade, Korean music and TV shows have exploded in global popularity. The Korean band BTS is the first since the

Feb. 13, 2020

[Lionel Laurent] Ireland brings new twist to populism

Sinn Fein’s electoral smash in Ireland is a historic moment for a party that has long had difficulty shaking off its past ties to the sectarian violence of the “troubles.” It’s clear that the party’s new leader and a policy platform based around fixing the country’s housing crisis and improving public services have struck a chord with the public. That was especially true with the under-35s, for whom peace in Ireland has been the norm rather than the exception.

Feb. 12, 2020