South Korea’s Unification Ministry views North Korea’s recent warning that it would strike South Korean conventional forces with nuclear weapons as an “existential threat,” while keeping close tabs on potential accidental conflicts between the two Koreas.

Kim Yo-jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s powerful younger sister, on Tuesday warned that the country will inevitably use nuclear weapons to “annihilate” South Korean conventional forces if South Korea chooses a military confrontation.

“We should not overlook the fact that (North Korea) refers to the nuclear issue as an existential threat” in the statement, a high-ranking official at the Unification Ministry, who wished to remain anonymous, said in a closed-door briefing.

The official with knowledge of the matter pointed out that Pyongyang had said the country would not use nuclear weapons against the Korean people, taking note of a change in North Korea’s declaratory policy concerning the use of nuclear weapons.

North Korea specifically said its “nuclear combat force will inevitably have to carry out its duties if South Korea chooses a military confrontation,” clarifying its position that it would use nuclear weapons at the outset of a war with South Korea.

The official said South Korea is “concerned” about the statement, as North Korea said it would launch a nuclear attack against South Korea under certain conditions.

“We view it as an existential threat,” the high-ranking official said, sharing Seoul‘s assessment of the statement after its careful examination.

Concerns over accidental conflict
The situation on the Korean Peninsula is at a crossroads, and “seasonal factors” such as the wind direction could raise the risks of the two Koreas being involved in accidental conflicts.

The wind direction in spring enables civic groups to send out anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets. In addition, the crab fishing season between April and June is another risk factor, as fishing boats catch blue crabs near the Northern Limit Line, a disputed inter-Korea maritime border in the Yellow Sea.

“There are risks that an incident or unexpected situation could lead both sides to confrontation and clashes,” the high-ranking official said.

The Unification Ministry’s assessment is noteworthy given that analysts largely forecast that North Korea could provoke South Korea in the near future, with the intent to abrogate the Sept. 19 inter-Korean comprehensive military agreement.

In addition, North Korea’s internal situation and the international circumstances have created a conducive environment for another major weapons test, the official noted.

Internally, North Korea has been gearing up for major political events this month, including the 110th anniversary of national founder Kim Il-sung’s birth and the 90th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army.

The South Korea-US joint military exercise scheduled for this month and Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine would have affected North Korea’s behavior and calculus as well.

The official viewed that there are higher chances that North Korea will launch another intercontinental ballistic missile rather than conduct a nuclear test. But the official did not rule out the possibility of the seventh nuclear test.

To prevent long-term confrontation
The high-ranking official also repeatedly underscored that the incoming government in South Korea should strive to bring North Korea to the negotiating table at a critical juncture, suggesting specific ways to resuscitate inter-Korean relations.

As the first step to jump-start dialogue, the next government must “make a declaration that it will provide humanitarian aid under any circumstance and separately from political and military situations,” the official said.

Yoon has endorsed the idea of providing humanitarian aid that can substantially help the North Korean people, irrespective of the denuclearization progress or political situation.

Another option could be to resume the inter-Korean tour program at Kumgangsan as it does not violate UN Security Council sanctions resolutions.

South Korea’s unification minister on Wednesday also called for President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol to put forth “intensive efforts” from the beginning of his term to prevent the two Koreas from moving toward “long-term confrontation.”

Unification Minister Lee In-young appealed to the incoming government to “implement North Korea and unification policies in a more consistent manner and with a long-term perspective” rather than taking a hard-line stance on North Korea.

“I propose (Yoon) to make a contractarian move by adopting a peace policy against the public expectations that the conservative government will take a confrontational stance (on North Korea),” Lee said during his last meeting with reporters held at the ministry’s inter-Korean dialogue office in central Seoul.

Lee said Yoon will be able to “resolve escalating tensions and crisis” and “prevent (the two Koreas) moving toward long-term confrontation only if he makes intensive efforts from his early days in office and succeeds in shifting the situation on the Korean Peninsula toward peace.”

The unification minister underlined that the incoming Yoon government must stop North Korea from resuming a nuclear test, which has been suspended since September 2017.

To that end, Lee said Yoon should implement a “forward-looking and proactive peace policy” to “make a turnabout on the situation of the Korean Peninsula.”

(dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)