North Korea has paved the way for resuming intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear tests this year, as part of the country’s actions to “reshape the regional security environment” in its favor, the US intelligence community has said.

The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Monday released its report on annual worldwide threat assessment before the House Intelligence Committee’s hearing on the matter.

The report assessed that Pyongyang’s recent spate of missile tests could be a sign of returning to major weapons tests that have been suspended since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pronounced a moratorium on nuclear and ICBM testing at a party plenum in April 2018.

Pyongyang fired off nine ballistic missiles and two cruise missiles in seven discrete launches in January alone.

“In January, North Korea began laying the groundwork for an increase in tensions that could include ICBM or possibly a nuclear test this year -- actions that Pyongyang has not taken since 2017,” the ODNI report said.

“Flight tests are part of North Korea’s effort to expand the number and type of missile systems capable of delivering nuclear warheads to the entire United States.”

The US intelligence community viewed that the resumption of major weapons tests is in line with the North Korean leader’s scheme of periodically using “aggressive and potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment in his favor.”

“These actions will include developing and demonstrating capabilities up to and possibly including the resumption of nuclear weapons and ICBM testing.”

The ODNI report also evaluated that Kim views “nuclear weapons and ICBMs as the ultimate guarantor of his totalitarian and autocratic rule of North Korea” with his personal belief that the country will be ultimately recognized as a “nuclear power.”

Against that backdrop, Kim probably does not consider the current level of sanctions, pressure and self-imposed COVID-19 lockdown measures as sufficient to “require a fundamental change“ in his approach.

The report also forecast that North Korea will “pose a serious threat” to the US and its allies.

As part of his efforts, Kim will seek to “invest in niche capabilities” to secure a range of options to “deter outside intervention, offset enduring deficiencies in the country’s conventional forces, and coercively advance his political objectives.”

The ODNI pointed to North Korea’s five-year defense development plan as an example. Kim issued instructions to expand and diversify weapons systems, including multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles and hypersonic glide vehicles.

In addition, Kim will “prioritize efforts to build an increasingly capable missile force designed to evade US and regional missile defenses,” while continuing to launch missiles with various goals such as normalizing the country’s missile testing and reinforcing deterrence.

ICBM test ‘soon’
Gen. Glen VanHerck, Commander of the US Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, on Tuesday also warned that North Korea may launch an ICBM “soon” during a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee.

Concerns have been repeatedly raised amid Pyongyang claiming it conducted an “important test” for developing a reconnaissance satellite twice last week.

“North Korea’s successful flight testing of an ICBM capable of reaching the continental United States and detonation of a thermonuclear weapon underscores its leaders’ determination to develop capabilities to threaten our homeland and constrain our options in crisis and conflict,” Gen. VanHerck said in a statement submitted to the committee.

The commander of the US Northern Command cited a new ICBM that was unveiled at the military parade in October 2020 as an indication of Pyongyang’s sophisticated missile capabilities.

“North Korea’s launch last October of a submarine-based ballistic missile suggests Kim Jong-un may soon resume flight testing his most capable weapon systems, including a new ICBM design.”

Gen. VanHerck also said North Korea’s “ongoing development of increasingly complex and capable strategic weapons” requires upgrading the US ballistic missile defense system.

The commander said it is imperative to deploy the Next Generation Interceptor “on time or early” and to achieve the full operational capability of the Long-Range Discrimination Radar “on schedule.”

But Gen. VanHerck said the current ballistic missile defense system is still capable of defeating a “limited ballistic missile attack from a rogue nation,” underscoring the US commitment to defend the mainland.

“Defending the United States against intercontinental ballistic missile threats from rogue nations remains a critical priority for USNORTHCOM and an important component of integrated deterrence.”

By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)