Japan is rising as a possible fourth player in North Korean denuclearization issues, boosted by the new US administration’s emphasis on South Korea-US-Japan ties, but the changes are likely to bring complications for Seoul, experts say.

The three nations are holding a series of high-level talks. Following the new US security team’s trip to Seoul and Tokyo in March, their top security advisers plan to hold a face-to-face meeting Friday as part of Washington’s ongoing policy review on North Korea.

Last week, when North Korea test-fired two ballistic missiles into the East Sea, it was Japan that confirmed the launches first, with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga holding an urgent press conference.

But Biden’s budding efforts to enhance the trilateral alliance comes at a time when South Korea-Japan relations, long strained over wartime history and trade, have deteriorated significantly, adding complexity to the already complicated peace talks on the peninsula.

In recent months South Korea has made a flurry of reconciliatory overtures toward Japan, calling for talks separate from thorny historical issues. But Japan has rebuffed the gestures, saying the South Korean government should come up with a concrete proposal, possibly a concession, to resolve the feud.

Another issue is the deep-rooted animosity between Japan and North Korea. While Japan normalized relations with South Korea in 1965, Japan has no formal ties with North Korea and has maintained a hard-line stance toward the North and its nuclear ambitions for decades.

“Japan may have acted as a spoiler in the denuclearization talks in the past. But this time when Japan and the US are in deep cooperation under the new US government, South Korea, not Japan, could be seen as a spoiler in the trilateral relationship,” said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent meetings with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts also exposed clear discrepancies in their views toward China and North Korea.

While Japan gave explicit backing to the US concerning China’s threats to regional stability, South Korea’s joint statement was toned down, possibly a reflection of Seoul’s ties with its largest trading partner.

As for North Korea, the US slammed the reclusive regime’s human rights abuses, but South Korea was cautious about raising the issue directly as it is still seeking engagement for dialogue despite the North’s unresponsiveness.

“The Moon Jae-in administration has carried out denuclearization talks under a three-party structure involving the two Koreas and the US alone. Having more members, especially the hard-line Japan, could make the talks even more complicated,” Shin said. 

Despite lingering expectations that the Tokyo Olympics could set the stage for reviving diplomacy on the North Korea issue, as when the 2018 PyongChang Winter Olympics led to the historic US-North Korea summits, experts were skeptical about pinning any hopes on the July event.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, cited the COVID-19 pandemic and North Korea’s open hostility toward Japan as the two key factors.

“Prime Minister Suga, who has his hands full with domestic issues, including his falling approval ratings, may want to invite North Korea to gain global attention. But it seems unlikely that North Korea would participate in the event amid the coronavirus pandemic,” he said.

“North Korea is extremely sensitive to the coronavirus, to the point where it shut down its borders for almost a year to ward off the spread.”

Park stressed that the aim of bolstering trilateral ties was ultimately to counter a more assertive China in the region, not North Korea.

He predicted that the US would increase pressure on South Korea to join an extended version of the current “Quad,” an informal strategic alliance consisting of the US, Japan, India and Australia. Japan recently opposed the idea of South Korea joining and instead recommended the UK as a new member nation.

“At this point, what’s urgent for South Korea is closely communicating with China on pending issues. Mistakes made when the nation adopted the THAAD should not be repeated again,” he said, referring to Beijing’s retaliatory actions against Seoul’s decision to install the US-made missile defense system in 2017.

This weekend is expected to become a watershed for South Korea’s diplomacy with the two superpowers. The trilateral meeting of top security advisers is to take place in the US on Friday (local time), and South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong plans to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in China on Saturday.

By Lee Ji-yoon (jylee@heraldcorp.com)