In addition to the Seoul metropolitan area, which accounts for nearly half of the country’s constituencies, the swing vote regions of Busan, Chungcheong, Gangwon and Jeju are likely to see some of the closest matches in the general elections on Wednesday.

Of the 253 electoral districts nationwide, the ruling Democratic Party said it was leading in 120 and contending in 70.

The main opposition United Future Party said it was headmost in 95 constituencies and contesting in 51.

Based on their estimates, the ruling party expects to win between 142 and 154 seats, and the main opposition is counting on between 124 and 130.

Since last week, the liberal ruling party said, public opinion has shifted in its favor thanks to rival candidates’ crude remarks about the bereaved families of the Sewol ferry disaster victims and other remarks disparaging younger voters. It also pointed to President Moon Jae-in’s approval ratings, which have risen lately.

The conservative opposition said it was doing well in the Gyeongsang and Chungcheong provinces, but losing in the Seoul metropolitan area.

Among the swing vote regions, Busan is especially unpredictable.

Of the 18 electoral districts in the nation’s second-largest city, the United Future Party claims to be leading in 14 and the ruling party in seven.

But upon taking a closer look, the outcome is unforeseeable in most areas, except for two conservative constituencies and a district with a strong support base for progressives.

Lee Keun-hyung, who heads the Democratic Party’s strategic planning committee, said Friday that according to polls, his party was showing a stable lead in three or four constituencies in Busan.

“It is neck and neck in about 10 constituencies, so we won’t know until the ballot boxes are opened,” he said.

Survey results varied in most districts, depending on the pollster, the timing of the survey and whether it was conducted via fixed-line or mobile phone.

In Busan, Moon’s approval ratings have been relatively low, and the United Future Party has always been more than 10 percentage points ahead of the ruling party in public opinion polls.

Things have begun to change, however, since the government announced it was providing emergency disaster relief funds to help people tackle the novel coronavirus.

“We don’t think there is a single constituency in Busan where we’re trailing,” an official from the main opposition party said.

“But as in the Seoul metropolitan area, a slip of the tongue can reverse the situation in Busan, so we are watching closely.”

Political observers project that the Democratic Party will win six or seven seats in Busan, and the United Future Party 10 or 11.

The Chungcheong area, which comprises Daejeon, Sejong, and North and South Chungcheong provinces, has traditionally been a swing vote region.

Of the 28 constituencies in the region, the liberals said they were dominant in 18, contesting in three and behind in seven.

The conservatives said they were leading in 16, competing in five and trailing in seven.

In Daejeon, which has seven electoral districts, the Democratic Party thinks its four incumbent lawmakers have a clear advantage over the United Future Party.

“We have expectations that we may be able to sweep Daejeon,” the Democratic Party’s Lee said.

“We are slightly ahead in the race for the three seats currently held by the United Future Party.”

The United Future Party, on the other hand, said it has a strong lead in the three constituencies that it represents.

“We will win at least five of the seven seats,” said Lee Jang-woo, head of the opposition bloc’s Daejeon arm.

In South Chungcheong Province, where 11 seats are up for grabs, each party said it expected to win at least seven.

Of the eight constituencies in North Chungcheong Province, the ruling bloc thinks it can win at least three and the opposition considers itself ahead in six.

Gangwon Province has traditionally been a conservative region as it borders North Korea and is therefore sensitive to national security policies.

But in this week’s elections, it won’t be so easy for the United Future Party due to divisions among conservatives.

It sees itself leading in only four of the eight constituencies in Gangwon, contesting in two and trailing in two.

The ruling party said it was leading in three and closely competing in the remaining five.

As for Jeju, the Democratic Party has never lost any of the island’s three constituencies since 2004.

The party expects to keep all three seats, while the opposition party thinks it may have a chance in Jeju-A.

By Kim So-hyun (sophie@heraldcorp.com)