The South Korean economy grew by a surprising 1.4 percent in the third quarter this year.

According to data released by the Bank of Korea on Thursday, the gross domestic product growth rate for the third quarter more than doubled that for the previous quarter, which was 0.6 percent. It also hit a 29-quarter high, last topped by 1.7 percent growth in the second quarter of 2010.

The third-quarter figure far exceeded forecasts that ranged from 0.8 percent to 0.9 percent.

With this, it seems certain that South Korea’s economic growth rate for this year will surpass the government goal of 3 percent. The bank says growth this year will be about 3.1 percent even if growth in the fourth quarter ends up at zero percent.

The third-quarter growth was largely driven by exports. They rose by 6.1 percent from the previous quarter. The export growth was the steepest after the first quarter of 2011 when exports increased by 6.4 percent.

Economic recovery in the US, Japan and other developed countries seems to have propelled South Korean exports.

Analysts cite the full-scale execution of an 11 trillion won ($9.73 billion) revised supplementary government budget mostly for job creations as one of the major contributors to the third-quarter growth.

Construction investment also increased by 1.5 percent, confounding expectations of contraction in the wake of restrictive real estate measures on Aug. 2.

Stable fluctuations of won-dollar exchange rates despite North Korea risks have also helped.

But in view of some details about the unexpectedly rapid growth, it is too early to be optimistic.

Export surge in the third quarter seems to have owed a lot to the super boom of the global semiconductor industry. Exporters made a strong sales push in late September to make up for business loss due to the long Chuseok holiday in early October.

It is hard to expect the effect of the supplementary budget to be continued.

The decrease in private consumption from 1.0 percent in the second quarter to 0.7 percent in the third quarter is a warning sign. An unabated difficulty with finding employment drags down private consumption. Consumers still hesitate to loosen the purse strings out of anxiety about the future despite overall data pointing to business recovery. People are a long way from feeling the effect of economic growth as it has not spread to all areas of the economy.

The growth rate of facility investment plummeted from 5.2 percent to 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter.

The latest data reflect the reality that most sectors of the South Korean economy are in a slump, except for a few booming industries. Such a disproportionate business situation shows that the fundamentals of the national economy are unsteady and frail.

With the economic growth rate this year appearing almost certain to reach a 3 percent level, the central bank is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate. It is a dominant view in the market that the rate will rise as soon as next month or early next year at the latest. A rise in interest rates will likely put restraints on growth.

Security crisis on the Korean Peninsula due to North Korea’s provocations, China’s economic retaliations for the deployment of a US anti-missile system and trade pressure from the US are unfavorable factors. The whole economy of South Korea may stagger if these turn for the worse.

Some experts predict that the semiconductor business boom will end within a year.

Economic policymakers must stay alert to risks at home and abroad.

What are badly needed to place the third-quarter surprise growth on a sustained upward trajectory are bold deregulation and effective innovation measures.

More efforts must be made to strengthen the fundamentals of the national economy so that it may keep growing on its own feet even after semiconductor business begins to slow down and fiscal resources reach the limit.

And key to doing so is creating a business-friendly management environment to vitalize private-sector investment.