North Korea’s missile test is threatening to undermine President Moon Jae-in’s initiative to reopen denuclearization talks with the runaway neighbor even before it takes off in earnest.

The provocation came just a few days after Moon secured his US counterpart’s blessing for his vision for a “phased, comprehensive approach” intended to start with a moratorium on Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests and progress to a complete disarmament and ultimately a peace treaty. In a joint statement, the two leaders noted that sanctions are a “tool of diplomacy,” and the door to dialogue with Pyongyang remains open “under the right circumstances.”

Despite the hard-won support, the latest launch is likely to prompt the Trump administration to harden its line against the Kim Jong-un regime, as it poses a direct threat to the US’ own security. The North’s state media said the Hwasong 14 reached an altitude of 2,800 kilometers and flew 933 kilometers after being fired at a “highest angle,” meaning it could travel more than 7,000 kilometers and put Hawaii within striking distance. 

Washington has apparently set the ICBM development as its “red line,” ratcheting up sanctions and pressure against the Kim Jong-un regime and Beijing, its economic lifeline.

Trump also expressed frustration shortly after the launch. “North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?” he wrote on Twitter, referring to Kim. He is forecast to press Chinese President Xi Jinping hard at their summit later this week on the sidelines of the Group of 20 conference in Germany.

“Though a detailed assessment is required, the US would have no option but to seek even tougher sanctions and pressure for a while,” a senior Seoul diplomat said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“For now there appears to be no reasons for the North to respond to the South’s overture given its weapons development. They probably think that as time goes by, there would be a crack in the current united front between the allies. I think the key would be North Korea’s next step.”

In the wake of the perceived ICBM liftoff, Moon would inevitably have to adjust his roadmap for a thaw with the communist neighbor.

Bolstered by Trump’s endorsement, the liberal president had been widely predicted to use the Aug. 15 Liberation Day as a core occasion to make an overture to the North, following the June 15 speech marking the 17th anniversary for a watershed inter-Korean peace declaration during which he offered talks in return for a halt in nuclear and missile tests.

Another likely venue was a Track 1.5 meeting called the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue, scheduled for later this month in Singapore. The event will bring together officials and private sector experts from the members of the six-party denuclearization forum -- the US, China, Japan, Russia and the two Koreas. Joseph Yun, special representative for North Korea policy at the US State Department and the chief nuclear negotiator, is expected to attend this year’s session.

“Given Moon’s aspirations, having talks is not impossible as the North, too, would feel no need for further tests if it has indeed succeeded in the ICBM launch,” said Chun Yung-woo, a former presidential secretary on foreign affairs and security who now runs the Korea Peninsula Future Forum in Seoul.

“But the thing is whether it would result in meaningful progress in denuclearization. Even the North agrees to freeze its nuclear program, it will most likely continue to produce fissile materials outside the Yongbyon nuclear complex and ramp up its capabilities for attacking the South, if not the US.”

By Shin Hyon-hee (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)