Nearly three months after the parliament voted to impeach President Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s Constitutional Court is set to rule on whether to unseat or reinstate the embattled president Friday.

The court’s eight justices will vote to accept, dismiss or reject the impeachment, possibly right before the opening of the verdict hearing, to prevent the results from being leaked.

Here is a guide to what could happen from Friday onward, which will be critical in shaping the political landscape of the country. 

Q. How will the verdict hearing play out?

Before the hearing, scheduled to start at 11 a.m. Friday, justices will meet and take turns to express their opinions -- for or against the impeachment -- and sign a verdict paper.

Acting Chief Justice Lee Jung-mi will preside over the verdict hearing to be held in the courtroom on the first floor of the Constitutional Court building in central Seoul.

She is likely to read out the reasons behind the court’s decision first and then issue the final verdict.

Park is not expected to attend the hearing.

In the 2004 impeachment trial of former President Roh Moo-hyun, the verdict hearing lasted 25 minutes.

As President Park faces 13 charges that are more complicated than Roh’s three charges, the hearing is expected to take longer.


Q. What are the possible scenarios?

1. Court upholds impeachment

At least six of the Constitutional Court’s eight justices must vote against Park for the impeachment to be upheld.

The court will approve the impeachment if it concludes that the president breached the country’s law and Constitution and the alleged violations were serious enough to remove her from office.

The key points that could determine Park’s fate are her alleged violation of public sovereignty by letting her confidante Choi Soon-sil make decisions in state affairs, and her alleged extortion of donations from local firms for dubious entities under Choi’s control.

Park has claimed that she had only sought help from Choi on private matters and claimed no knowledge of Choi’s illicit profit-making activities.

The independent counsel, which led a 70-day probe into the corruption scandal, on Monday named Park an accomplice to Choi in taking bribes from Samsung Group. She has not been indicted, as a sitting president is immune from criminal prosecution.


2. Court rejects impeachment

At least three of the justices have to vote for Park for her to maintain her presidency.

The justices will reject the impeachment if they conclude that the president did not violate the country’s law and Constitution or that what she did was not grave enough for her to be ousted.


3. Court drops trial, no decision on victor

At least five of the eight justices have to vote for the trial to be dismissed, though local pundits view this outcome as unlikely. The justices can dismiss the case if they think the parliament’s passage of the impeachment was legally flawed.

Park’s lawyers have argued that the impeachment should be dropped, saying its process was illegitimate.

They said that Park should have been judged by a full nine-justice court and every single of the 13 charges in the impeachment motion should have been reviewed and voted on separately.


4. Park resigns voluntarily

There is a possibility that Park could choose to resign from her post voluntarily before the verdict is made, or even after winning the impeachment trial for the sake of uniting the divided nation.

On top of avoiding the disgrace of a confirmed impeachment, she would also be able to retain all her entitlements including her pension and security services as a former president. The presidential election would be moved to early May.

There are no legal clauses stipulating what to do in the impeachment trial if Park resigns before the verdict is reached. In that case, it remains disputed whether the court can still rule or should close the trial.

The presidential office flatly denied Park’s voluntary resignation.


Q. What will happen after the verdict is made?

Whatever ruling the court makes, it will take effect immediately.

If the court upholds the impeachment, Park will be permanently removed from office. She will then return to her residence in southern Seoul, where she lived before entering the Blue House.

Park will lose her presidential privilege of criminal immunity as a sitting president and face possible prosecution. The nation will hold an election to choose a new chief in early May, with local pundits expecting the date to fall on May 9.

She will be deprived of her rights as a former president such as her monthly pension and other perks including an office, medical treatment, secretaries and a driver. But she will still be provided with security services at her residence.

If the court either rejects or dismisses the impeachment, Park will resume her presidency right away.

The country will likely face public outcry and political turmoil, given the majority of the public want Park to be ousted. According to a survey by local pollster Realmeter released Thursday, 76.9 percent of the respondents said that the impeachment should be upheld.

The presidential election will be held in December as originally scheduled before Park’s five-year term officially ends in February.

In the case of a dismissal, the parliament could theoretically pass another impeachment motion against Park.


Q. Is a retrial possible?

Park’s lawyers have constantly claimed that the Constitutional Court is “biased” against the president and that the impeachment process was legally flawed, calling for a retrial.

The Constitutional Court runs under a single-trial system and the current law does not stipulate whether a retrial is possible.

But the top court has accepted requests for a retrial under exceptional circumstances when there are serious violations of law or crucial factors ignored in the trial process.

The court dismissed a request for a retrial by the now-defunct Unified Progressive Party last year, saying “there are no legitimate reasons for a retrial.” The party was ordered by the court to disband for allegedly plotting to overthrow the South Korean government in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula.


By Ock Hyun-ju (laeticia.ock@heraldcorp.com)