Brexit may go down in history as the most significant event in Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Its repercussions may be far-reaching and global. Policymakers everywhere must beware and cooperate so as to prevent its negative consequences.

First, a brief note on the striking parallels between Brexit and the fall of the wall. The first is that just as the wall’s sudden collapse came as a surprise defying conventional wisdom, so did the outcome of the Brexit referendum. Both of these watershed events shattered the widespread belief that the ruling authorities -- namely, the East German regime and the U.K. establishment -- were in control and would not permit radical changes to the status quo.

The second is that, as the wall’s fall was triggered by an expression of popular will against the communist establishment in the form of a mass exodus of East Germans from behind the Iron Curtain, so was the Brexit vote an expression of popular will for an exodus from the EU that defied the British and EU establishment.

Thirdly, in as much as the origins of the wall’s collapse trace back to the actions of Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader who permitted greater freedoms for the peoples in the Eastern bloc in a gamble that this would ultimately strengthen the socialist system, the origins of Brexit trace to the action of David Cameron, the British leader who initiated the Brexit referendum in a gamble that this would preserve and improve the British membership in the EU. In both cases, the leaders miscalculated and unleashed forces they could not control.

While the forces let loose by Gorbachev’s reforms led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the lifting of the Iron Curtain, it remains to be seen what will be Brexit’s ultimate aftermath. Brexit may potentially lead to the disintegration of the U.K. with the secession of Scotland, which, in turn, can embolden secessionist movements in other European countries such as Spain, thus raising the specter of Balkanization of Europe. Brexit can also set in motion the implosion or severe impairment of the EU, with additional member states exiting and the EU itself turning into a generator of instability in Europe and the world economy. If all this happens, Cameron may go down in history as the British Gorbachev who unwittingly initiated his own country’s dissolution and the unraveling of the postwar European project for stability. Whereas Gorbachev’s reforms began the process of dismantling the postwar order in Europe by lifting the Iron Curtain, Brexit would pick up where Gorbachev left off by undermining the EU and the stability the EU represents, another pillar of postwar Europe.

Finally, if Brexit may be interpreted as an expression of nationalism and populist backlash against globalization, and it touches off victories of nationalist and anti-globalization forces in the U.S., France and other countries resulting in these nations raising their own barriers to free trade, migration and other globalizing forces, then Brexit may become the catalyst for a breakdown of the modern world order spearheaded by the Anglo-American powers since the 19th century -- a world order built on a foundation of free trade and an increasingly borderless world economy.

It is in the best interests of the United Kingdom and the United States to not undermine this modern world order they themselves created. If London and Washington retreat into parochial nationalism and protectionist trade and immigration policies, they could potentially lead the rest of the world back into the chaos of the 1930s, which was marked by xenophobic nationalism, beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies, economic distress, and rise of illiberal regimes. Moreover, in the face of the potential threat to European security posed by Brexit’s negative impact, the Anglo-American powers must take leadership to preserve and strengthen European unity and the trans-Atlantic alliance, especially against any attempt by Russia and China to exploit cracks in Western unity.

As the current superpower, the United States, in particular, has a pivotal role to play in safeguarding the stability and prosperity of the modern world order. At present, America’s allies are understandably nervous about the strength of Washington’s commitment to their defense, as a revanchist Kremlin, Chinese maritime ambitions, a nuclear North Korea and radical Islamic terrorism menace the security of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the entire world order. Instead of making these allies even more anxious by threatening to annul or renegotiate the trade agreements and the security arrangements that underpin the current world order, America must reassure her allies by enhancing and demonstrating her resolve to defend the current world order. In particular, Washington must evince its unwavering commitment to key defense and trade pacts such as NATO, NAFTA, and its bilateral ties with key allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the ASEAN nations.

As the world watches Brexit’s ripple effects on Europe and beyond, peoples and leaders everywhere would do well to learn from history and take steps to avoid the pitfalls of nationalism and populist politics, thereby safeguarding the modern democratic world order undergirded by free markets, trade and human rights. 


By Jongsoo Lee

Jongsoo Lee is senior managing director at Brock Securities LLC and center associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. The opinions expressed in this piece are solely his own. He can be followed on Twitter at @jameslee004. -- Ed.