The much awaited referendum is finally over, and Britain has decided to leave the European Union. In the months leading up to the referendum, the risks associated with a Brexit were repeatedly warned, while many foreign leaders, big businesses, and experts impassionedly urged Britain to stay in. As if those were not enough, a life was tragically taken away.

Since the historic decision was reached, emergency meetings have convened around the world to discuss appropriate responses to Britain’s decision to take a different path. Economic consequences of a Brexit for Britain and the rest of the EU will much depend on how the U.K. negotiates its terms of departure in the next two years under Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. However, rattling global financial markets indicate that the prospect of future uncertainty is casting a shadow over the global economy. Political ramifications are not small either. The rise of the far-right in the rest of Europe, buoyed by the Britain’s decision, and the possibility of a Donald Trump Presidency across the Atlantic connote that a mere divorce between an unhappy couple could entail far more grave consequences for the world.

For East Asia, Brexit could mean more than a possible trade and investment disruption. As “the” model of regional integration stumbles over Britain’s’ departure, doubts and questions over “regionalism” will inevitably arise. It was the establishment of the European Union in 1992 that brought a “new wave of regionalism” to global governance. The introduction of the single currency and the enlargement projects have reaffirmed non-EU policy makers’ confidence and faith in regionalism. The coincident stalemate of multilateral trade talks since the early 2000s has accelerated the proliferation of bilateral and regional FTAs and made a stronger case for strengthening both regionalism and regionalization.

The wave didn’t miss to lap up against the shore of the East. It was the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis that prompted the needs for closer cooperation among East Asian countries. However, it was the seemingly successful integration process of the EU that gave impetus to a serious discussion on regional institutionalization in East Asia. Since then, the number of bilateral FTAs increased from one in 2000 to more than seventy in 2015, and various regional integration initiatives -- including East Asia Summit and Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat -- have been established. Yet, increasing divergent interests of ASEAN member states and shaky diplomatic ties among the plus three countries, notably China, Japan, and Korea, have, to a certain degree, discouraged enthusiasm for deepening regional integration in recent years.

How would Brexit, then, affect once passionate but currently inanimate East Asian countries’ long-term aspirations of building an East Asian Community? Would it further weaken the proponents’ optimism for deeper regionalism? Or would it serve as a “critical juncture” that reignites a regional discussion on greater cooperation to fend off Brexit risks and its ripple effects on the global economy? An immediate reaction could be lost faith in the dream project. As skepticism escalates, East Asian economies could encounter strong political resistance against the region’s collective efforts to advance and strengthen cooperation. However, Brexit does not translate directly into a failure of the entire project. If Britain and the EU weather the storm with strong determination and solidarity, Brexit could be discounted as a temporal roadblock on the Autobahn. Further, East Asian countries could re-intensify regional cooperation to find sources of growth internally amidst falling purchasing power in Europe and the U.K.

At this stage, it is difficult to foresee which direction East Asia will steer the wheel. Part of it depends on how much the global economy could absorb the shock and how the secession process would unravel. The other part of it will depend on how East Asian economies assess the value of regional integration in serving their own strategic interests in the unpredictable post-Brexit world. However, given that it was British citizens’ growing discontent with the EU that drove the Brexit vote, it will be imperative for East Asian governments to proactively address and respond to domestic concerns towards deeper integration.

It is unlikely for East Asia to retreat from the integration progress it has made so far. RCEP negotiations will be continuously held until the deal is reached; the ASEAN Economic Community will continue to take shape; and annual regional summits including EAS, ASEAN+3, and APEC will continue to remain as major events in international affairs. However, Brexit serves as a wakeup call for East Asia to reflect where it stands now on its progress towards closer cooperation and what it should do collectively to lead the way towards a resilient and sustainable regionalism. Any misfortune can turn into our advantage, and that will depend on how we join our hands regardless of your “yea” or my “nay.”

By Soyen Park 

Soyen Park is a senior researcher at the Embassy of the Republic of Korea in India. The opinions expressed in this article are the author‘s own and do not reflect the view of the government. –Ed.