For a kingdom that has survived by hedging its bets and resisting change, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman proposes a series of sweeping reforms: 

Saudi Aramco and other big, state-owned enterprises would be privatized; cinemas, museums and a “media city” would be created for a young population starving for entertainment; the power of the religious police would be curtailed; and, at some point, women would be allowed to drive.

MBS, as the 30-year-old prince is known, proposes to make an inward-looking, hyper-cautious Saudi Arabia look more like the neighboring United Arab Emirates, with its dizzying skyscrapers and freewheeling market economy. He seems to recognize that this economic transformation won’t be possible without easing Saudi Arabia’s strict Islamic traditions. His reform blueprint, “Vision 2030,” offered a tantalizing but unspecific commitment: “Our vision is a tolerant country with Islam as its constitution and moderation as its method.”

To appreciate the reformers’ challenge, it helps to have a clear mental picture of Saudi Arabia. This isn’t a tiny emirate like Kuwait, Bahrain or the UAE. It’s a vast sandy expanse, three times the size of Texas. Saudi citizens number more than 20 million, not much fewer than Australia. About half the population is under 25, and male unemployment is 11 percent. It’s a big country, with complicated problems.

The reform agenda, prepared with help from prominent American consulting companies, is startling. A “National Transformation Program,” issued in June, lists 178 strategic objectives; progress will be measured by 371 “key performance indicators.” The ministries will embark on 543 new initiatives.

The targets are highly specific: Non-oil revenue will more than triple by 2020. Water and electricity subsidies will be slashed by more than $50 billion. The percentage of Saudis with digital health records will rise from zero to 70 percent. The number of cultural events in the kingdom will rise to 400 annually from 190.

The biggest piece of MBS’ reform effort may be his plan for partial privatization of Saudi Aramco, the national oil company. The world had never seen a privatization of this size: Saudis reckon that Saudi Aramco’s valuation is between $2 trillion and $3 trillion. MBS and his advisers want to float less than 5 percent of the company to private investors, but even this tiny share could be worth more than $100 billion.

Privatization would shake up Saudi Aramco, and the welfare-state mentality spawned by the oil boom. “Our business sector has become very lazy,” says a top Saudi source. The deputy crown prince “wants the welfare society’s destruction. He wants Saudi citizens to become more self-reliant. He wants people to be less dependent on the government.”

MBS has been barnstorming in Washington, California and New York in the last month to promote the program. He told Silicon Valley entrepreneurs on June 22 that in pushing for change, Saudi Arabia has the benefit of authoritarian rule. “There is an advantage to quickness of decision-making, the kind of fast change that an absolute monarch can do in one step that would take a traditional democracy 10 steps,” he said, according to notes taken by one participant.

The biggest question mark is whether MBS can alter the alliance between the House of Saud and the conservative religious establishment. This pact created the Saudi state, but has also enfeebled it. He has already made some moves, including a royal decree in April that blocked the power of the religious police, known as the “mutaween,” to arrest people.

MBS’ advisers promise more such reforms, including more entertainment sites in the kingdom, museums that display Western art, more mixing of sexes in public places and, “very soon,” the opportunity for women to drive. But MBS also seems wary. He doesn’t want to give religious extremists an easy target by moving too quickly. He tells advisers that resistance from the religious leadership can be overcome, “but it takes courage.”

A prominent Arab official sums up the Saudi challenge this way: “Saudi Arabia has been accused of being too old, too slow and too backward. Finally, we have someone who’s moving forward and changing the country. We need to give him some room to operate.”

A half-dozen prominent Saudi-watchers who’ve met MBS told me they think he has the potential to rebuild Saudi Arabia into a more dynamic country that’s much more able to protect its security and that of its neighbors. But many worry that he’s also capable of driving his country off a cliff with his headstrong, sometimes reckless behavior.
  
This column, based on interviews with dozens of Saudi, American, European and Arab officials and analysts, is the second of two about the ferment in the kingdom. -- Ed.


By David Ignatius

David Ignatius’ email address is davidignatius@washpost.com. -- Ed.

(Washington Post Writers Group)