Relations between the two Koreas are set to go farther downhill as no fresh reconciliatory gestures are coming out of the North’s ongoing party congress, while defiant leader Kim Jong-un has reasserted the country’s commitment to nuclear weapons.

The unrelenting tension, which intensified after Pyongyang’s latest nuclear and missile tests early this year, poses a deepening challenge to President Park Geun-hye as she may conclude her five-year term without a solid legacy in cross-border ties -- despite a series of ambitious initiatives aimed at mending fences, moving toward denuclearization and laying the groundwork for an ultimate reunification. 

Nearly one and a half years remain for Park’s presidency, and Kim’s constant military provocations and brute threats of a strike are chiefly to blame for the current strain. With a looming lame-duck period and the young ruler’s unfaltering nuclear ambition, however, it would be difficult for Seoul to bring about the momentum for a turnaround, observers say.

“It may be a bit premature to judge, but having been watching the party congress, it seems true that chances of a thaw are growing slimmer, reminiscent of the latter part of the Lee Myung-bak government,” a diplomatic source said, asking for anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject.

Under Lee, the inter-Korean relationship suffered setbacks as Pyongyang staged not only atomic and long-range rocket provocations but also fatal attacks on a South Korean warship and border island. The conservative president maintained a stringently reciprocal, conditions-loaded approach, forgoing his predecessors’ aid and joint business programs, though he did attempt at reconciliation such as by covertly dispatching a special envoy for talks with North Korean officials.

Despite the latest military experiments, hopes had abounded that the regime could move to defuse tension and restart dialogue following its first ruling Workers’ Party congress in 36 years. State media had repeatedly called for negotiations to replace the armistice agreement with a peace treaty in recent months.

Yet Kim responded with antiquated, conflicting claims. In a televised address on Sunday, he proposed inter-Korean military talks and urged efforts to improve ties, while declaring the country a “responsible nuclear state” and reaffirming its parallel pursuit of nuclear and development -- the so-called byungjin policy.

Seoul dismissed the speech as a “propaganda offensive lacking sincerity,” restating that it will not accept the North as a nuclear state. “It should present a genuine position with regard to denuclearization,” Unification Ministry spokesman Jeong Joon-hee told a news briefing on Monday.

Given the protracted stalemate, Park should act to make headway through a summit with Kim rather than working-level talks, said People’s Party Rep. Park Jie-won who facilitated the watershed 2000 summit between then President Kim Dae-jung and late strongman Kim Jong-il.

“A summit is the only way to open the sluice gate (to break the deadlock). Working-level dialogue involving a tug of war has never made significant progress,” the lawmaker said in a radio interview on Monday.

By Shin Hyon-hee (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)