The outcome of the general election is expected to serve as a gauge of public sentiment toward the parties’ potential presidential runners, as the new parliament will affect the remaining two years of the incumbent administration and the beginning two years of the next one.

Presidential aspirants that have already enjoyed a mainstream upper hand in the lead-up to the parliamentary election are now expected to face more aggressive challenges.


Recent public polls show that the higher the ranking among potential presidential runners, the greater their pending challenges.

According to a public survey conducted by local pollster Realmeter from April 4-6 on 1,523 voters nationwide, The Minjoo Party of Korea’s former chief Rep. Moon Jae-in had the lead with an approval rating of 20 percent.
He was followed by the ruling Saenuri Party-affiliated former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, the newborn minority People’s Party cochairman Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo and incumbent Saenuri chief Rep. Kim Moo-sung.

Current Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon and Saenuri defector Rep. Yoo Seong-min also kept their names on the list.

The Minjoo Party’s Moon, having stepped down from leadership and renounced candidacy for the April parliamentary race from the beginning, has kept a relative distance from the election. 

The essential variable for him is the outcome in the Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces, dubbed the Honam region, where voters have hinted at withdrawing their longtime political loyalty to the party. 

Recovering support from the region is considered crucial for Moon to cement his bid for the nation’s top job.

Voters in the nation’s southwest belt have increasingly accused the Busan-based Moon of neglecting and mistreating the longtime opposition stronghold.

“Should (Honam) withdraw its support from me, I will readily move off the political frontline and renounce my candidacy in the presidential election,” Moon had said last Friday, addressing the citizens of Gwangju.

“An opposition candidate who fails to mirror the Honam spirit may be considered unqualified (for presidency).”

Though he did not specify the number of seats that will determine his political fate, the runner-up of the 2012 presidential election made it clear that he will not bypass public sentiment in the key strategic area.

One big hurdle for Moon is the People’s Party, which has embraced a number of senior Honam-based Minjoo defectors. The party has been widely forecast to make a stable landing as the third largest parliamentary group.

People’s Party’s cochief Ahn Cheol-soo continues to face a dilemma of how to reach out to those that remain loyal the Minjoo Party, or to persuade future voters of his political identity.

Saenuri chief Kim, meanwhile, has underlined that this year’s parliamentary election is to be his last and that he will step down from party leadership after the polls, regardless of the results. 

This was taken as a sign that he will be shifting his prime focus to the presidential election.

“I wish to play a greater role, so help me,” he said several times while campaigning in his Busan constituency.

The lack of endorsement from President Park Geun-hye has been Kim’s weakest point, as pro-Park members are reportedly considering backing other high-profile figures such as U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon for the party’s presidential ticket.

To make up for such vulnerability, Kim had been striving to steer the party to a solid majority victory and thus prove his leadership -- a plan which turned sour as the Saenuri fell short of its ambitions.

Former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, too, drifted a step away from potential presidency after losing to ranking opposition rival in Seoul’s politically symbolic district of Jongno, based on exit polls.

Oh, who had resigned from his mayoral seat in 2011 amid a dispute with the city council over free school meals, sought to make a comeback, leaning on his public recognition, as well as the subtle support of the pro-Park faction.

One of the newcomers on the list is Rep. Yoo Seong-min, who successfully ran as an independent in his current constituency in conservative-leaning Daegu. 

The relatively reformative lawmaker, who was once seen as one of the closest aides to the president, came into public spotlight through his feuds with the party leadership and Cheong Wa Dae.

The peak of the conflict was when then-floor leader Yoo agreed with the opposition to revise the parliamentary advancement bill which had been motioned by President Park.

Yoo’s obvious exclusion from party nomination, which led to his defection at the eleventh hour, created an image of martyrdom and boosted his position among non-Park conservatives.

By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)