The Korea Herald

지나쌤

BOK expected to hold rate steady amid household debt concerns

By KH디지털2

Published : Jan. 11, 2016 - 09:36

    • Link copied

South Korea's central bank is expected to stand pat on its key rate for another month as a recent U.S. rate hike and growing concerns over fast rising household debts prevent an additional rate cut, a poll showed Monday.

In a monthly poll conducted by Yonhap Infomax, the financial news arm of Yonhap News Agency, 15 out of 17 economists surveyed projected the Bank of Korea to keep its key interest rate frozen at 1.5 percent for January at its monthly rate-setting meeting Thursday.

The BOK has kept its policy rate steady since June when it sent the key rate to the record low level through four rate cuts in less than a year to help bolster growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

The economists noted the local economy may need additional support especially amid sluggish exports but that the U.S. rate hike in December, the first of its kind in nearly a decade, and growing household debts will prevent an additional rate cut at least for some time.

"We expect the BOK will keep rates on hold for the first half of 2016, before raising in the second half of 2016 on the back of stronger inflation and consumption growth," said Emily Dabbs, an analyst from Moody's Analytics.

South Korea's exports dipped 7.9 percent from a year earlier in 2015 while the country posted an on-year drop in exports every single month last year.

"We expect the BOK to hold (key rate) in order to avoid increasing market volatility unnecessarily and also to take more time to assess the growing drag in China's weakening appetite for its exports," said Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho.

Some said the continued dip in exports, a major engine for growth here, warranted an immediate rate cut.

"We believe South Korea's key rate needs to be lowered significantly when considering structural factors. We believe there is a high possibility of an additional rate cut around March when considering factors that may dampen consumer spending at the beginning of the year especially amid a continued slump in exports," Kim Ji-man, an economist from HMC Investment & Securities, said.

In its latest revision released October, the BOK slashed its growth outlook to 3.2 from 3.3 percent for 2016. Some of the economists surveyed expected the central bank to again revise down its growth outlook to 3 percent in its quarterly revision due on Thursday.

Still, many said a need to maintain stability in the financial market will outweigh a need to support growth amid concerns over fast growing household debts.

The country's household debts climbed to a record high of 1,166.4 trillion won as of end-September. "I expect the BOK to hold the key rate frozen throughout the year. It is true the possibility of a rate cut recently increased due to instability in the global financial market and economic uncertainties, but the U.S. rate hike and a resulting appreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar may prevent a rate cut," said Ma Ju-ok, an analyst from Kiwoom Securities. "I also expect the BOK to hold the key rate steady to help remove concerns over household debts." (Yonhap)