On the surface, Ahn Cheol-soo left the New Politics Alliance for Democracy party because leader Moon Jae-in did not accept his demand to elect new leadership to reform the party beset by successive election defeats and severe internal feuding.

But one of the real reasons may be that he came to realize the party would be unable to provide the platform he needed to achieve his dream of becoming president.

He did say the NPAD did not have any chance of ending the rule of the conservative Saenuri Party and achieving a change of government.

Then would Ahn be able to grow his own political clout and build up a political force with which he can win the highest elected office of the country?

It certainly is too early to predict how Ahn and the “new political group” he pledged to create will fare in the next general elections and the presidential poll. But looking back at some past cases may help you make your own guess.

One of the first things that came to my mind when I was watching Ahn’s announcement of his departure from the NPAD on television was former President Kim Young-sam.

Kim YS vs. Ahn in tiger hunting 

Kim had spent most of his political career in the opposition. But he made the biggest political bet of his life in 1990: He merged his party with Roh Tae-woo’s ruling party and Kim Jong-pil’s minor conservative party.

Kim Young-sam faced stiff criticism even from his close associates for defecting to the military-backed government he had so long fought against. He also encountered many difficulties -- including an internal power struggle within the giant ruling party -- on his way to winning the party’s nomination and eventually the presidency in the 1992 election.

As many people still vividly remember, Kim justified his action by saying that “one should get into the tiger’s den to capture one.” He did capture the tiger, eventually fulfilling his middle school dream of becoming president. 

It was ironic that Ahn made the same comment when he merged his fledgling political group with what is now the NPAD in 2013. The difference, as you see, is that unlike Kim, Ahn gave up on tiger hunting within the NPAD.

Mavericks

Announcing his decision to leave the NPAD, Ahn said he was setting out into the “wilderness, all alone.” It instantly reminded me of some who were different -- or at least looked different -- from other traditional politicians and old-timers.

Roh Moo-hyun, Park Chan-jong and Moon Kook-hyun all had different backgrounds and political lives, but in my view, they had some things in common. They had been in the political limelight for a certain period of time on the strength of their positive public images as men who the general public thought could change politics.

Because of their individual differences, it is hard to find one word to exactly define the three, but terms like maverick, rebel, nonconformist and reformist could be applied to them.

The most successful case -- successful in that he was the only one in the group to ascend to the presidency -- was that of the late Roh Moo-hyun, who won the 2002 election despite entering the race as a definite underdog in all respects. Perhaps “maverick” or “rebel” would be the best word to describe the former human rights lawyer who entered politics under the tutelage of Kim.

Roh parted with Kim when his political mentor merged his party for a coalition with conservatives in 1990. He shot to national fame for his tough stance on ex-president Chun Doo-hwan during the parliamentary hearings on the strongman’s past misdeeds.

In 2000, he abandoned a parliamentary constituency in Seoul, where he was almost certain to win, and instead went to his southeastern hometown Busan, where candidates from his opposition party based in the rival southwestern region did not have any chance of victory. It was called a “crusade” against the deep regionalism in Korean politics.

Moves like these further boosted the positive public perception of him, which proved a valuable asset in his presidential campaign.

Before Roh, there was Park Chan-jong, another human rights lawyer whose public image as a “germless” politician put him in the political limelight. He started politics with Park Chung-hee’s ruling party, but rebelled against the strongman’s move to lengthen his power. He was called a member of “opposition within the ruling party.”

Park’s image as a man of conviction and a clean leader enthralled many voters fed up with corrupt, partisan politics. Riding on the popularity wave, he ran in the 1992 election after creating his own party, but failed to overcome the old-timers, finishing fourth after Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung and Hyundai Group founder Chung Ju-yung. Park still appears on television as a commentator.

Moon Kook-hyun’s stint in national politics was much shorter than that of Roh or Park. The former CEO of Yuhan Kimberly was a total newcomer to politics, but drew instant fame for his image as a clean, upright and capable entrepreneur who would be able to lead the nation as efficiently and successfully as he did with an enterprise that commanded high public respect.

But the wave he created ended up a ripple in a teacup as he finished fourth in the 2007 election after Lee Myung-bak, Chung Dong-young and Lee Hoi-chang.  

By now, perhaps you could guess why I mentioned the three men. Make your own bet about whose path Ahn, who like the three has called for changes toward new politics, will take. Hope you will have made the right bet.

By Chon Shi-yong

Chon Shi-yong is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Herald. He can be contacted at sychon@heraldcorp.com">sychon@heraldcorp.com. –Ed.