Korea’s liberal party has lost to its conservative counterpart in most elections over the past few years. It allowed the conservative party to score landside victories in the general elections in 2008 and 2012.

The main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy does not seem to stand a good chance when it comes to the coming April 13 general election.

Two NPAD heavyweights — Reps. Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo — are again locked in a bitter confrontation, reminding voters of the conflict they had in the buildup to the 2012 presidential election.

Their uncompromising standoff has fueled worries that the party might suffer another crushing defeat. A sense of defeatism appears to be prevailing among opposition supporters, even before the nation has entered campaign mode.

Supporters of the liberal party want a unified, harmonious leadership that can win not just the upcoming election, but ultimately the 2017 presidential election, and thereby achieve a government change.

If the dispute between Moon and Ahn is about the party’s policy directions or campaign pledges, it could elicit interest from the public. But they are locking horns over who should have the power to select party candidates for the April elections.

In mid-November, NPAD chairman Moon proposed to build a tentative triumvirate with Ahn and Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon in the run-up to the election. Moon had proposed to share the leadership position with the NPAD bigwigs during the period.

But Ahn rejected Moon’s offer to build a coalition leadership. Instead, Ahn countered with a plan to select new leadership by holding a party caucus and merging with the new opposition party led by Rep. Chun Jung-bae, a defector from the NPAD. 

Moon faces challenges not just from Ahn but from other nonmainstreamers. A power game is underway between the current leadership and the sidelined factions. On Dec. 8, Moon rejected the demands of dissenting party members that he step down.

Moon is adamantly against holding a national caucus early next year to elect new leadership.

There is no doubt that a split of the two NPAD big-hitters is frustrating to a large proportion of liberal supporters.

A significant point is that residents in the Honam region, referring to South and North Jeolla provinces, are no longer loyal supporters of Moon and his aides, who were close confidantes to former President Roh Moo-hyun.

Regionalism hampers Korea’s political development. But in practice, it has proven difficult for liberals to secure a majority in the Assembly or win presidential elections without gaining support from the nation’s western regions.

They could win elections or prevent conservatives from earning a majority in the Assembly only when they edged out conservatives in at least two of the three western regions — Seoul, Gyeonggi Province and the Chungcheong provinces — plus dominance in the Honam region.

The ruling Saenuri Party’s faithful supporters are estimated to make up about 30 percent of total voters.

The party enjoys an advantage as its stronghold, the Yeongnam region, is more populous than the Honam region, the bastion of the liberal party.