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[Kim Kyung-ho] Park’s stance on Beijing parade

By KH디지털2

Published : Aug. 6, 2015 - 17:14

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During her summer vacation last week, President Park Geun-hye posted on her Facebook page a photo of a letter and a hand-drawn portrait of her from a Chinese man, who described the South Korean leader as his “heroine.”

His admiration for Park may deepen further if he sees her attending a military parade scheduled to be held in Beijing on Sept. 3, which China established as its Victory Day last year. The parade through Tiananmen Square was apparently designed to serve as a reminder of China’s role as an Allied power in World War II and highlight atrocities committed during Japan’s 1937-45 occupation of its territory.

Chinese President Xi Jinping extended an invitation to Park and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last month to participate in the event. But Park still remains undecided whether to show up at the parade that is expected to showcase some advanced Chinese weaponry.

The matter is emerging as the latest diplomatic conundrum for Seoul, which is trying to strike a balance between China and the U.S. Park seems to be facing a complex equation involving various strategic variables beyond pleasing the Chinese public and saving Xi’s face before making public her stance.

Debates on the pros and cons of her presence at the parade have been heating up among experts and commentators here in a sequel to the divisive discourses over whether the country should join a China-led regional development bank and deploy a U.S.-led advanced missile defense system on its soil.

What makes Park’s decision more sensitive is the remark by Rep. Kim Moo-sung, chairman of the conservative ruling Saenuri Party, during his recent U.S. trip that the U.S. is more important to South Korea than China. If she avoids attending the military parade, it will be seen as verifying Kim’s comment. In contrast, her attendance will highlight Seoul’s uncoordinated stance, consolidating the view that she has been tilting toward Beijing.

Park may feel more burdened by the prospect that she would become probably the most conspicuous foreign leader standing beside Xi at the parade in Beijing. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin and heads of some former communist bloc states have confirmed their participation.

No major Western leaders are expected to attend the event, though they will likely have other dignitaries represent their countries unlike their boycott of Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade due to Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine. They may feel apprehensive about reviewing the Chinese military on the site of its bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 1989.

Chinese officials are certain to fret about this prospect as they are making preparations for the parade as a crucial occasion to demonstrate Xi’s grip on power and his long-term vision for China. Beijing seems to be focusing on having Park and Abe attend the event in the hope that their participation will help avoid its similarity to the lackluster parade in Moscow.

A key aide to Abe traveled to Beijing in July in what was viewed as a mission to lay the groundwork for the Japanese prime minister’s visit to China. Abe was expected to seek to hold summit talks with Xi while stopping short of attending the parade. But Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this week he had not heard about the Japanese leader’s trip to Beijing in September, raising speculation that Abe might have dropped his plan for a meeting with Xi, which would focus on Japan’s repentance for its wartime atrocities.

The selective approach that seemed to have been considered by Abe may not be an option for Park. If she decides to go to Beijing next month, she needs to attend the parade.

Despite some criticism of her efforts to strike a balance between Washington and Beijing, her close personal ties with Xi and the strengthened relations between their countries have become valuable strategic assets for Seoul. It may be unwise to weaken the credibility of the bilateral partnership consolidated over the past years by turning away from an event, to which China has attached so much importance.

Certainly, her trip could be a considerable burden for Park as she will probably be the only leader of U.S. allies to stand in line with Xi at the military parade in Beijing. But her attendance may well be against the backdrop of the historical fact that Korean independence fighters fought against Imperial Japanese troops in China. It seems meticulous that some commentators here note the Korean government in exile was in solidarity not with Chinese communists but with the Kuomintang government led by Chiang Kai-shek.

From a strategic viewpoint, Park may also use her participation in the parade as an occasion to more actively push for initiatives to reduce threats from North Korea and enhance security and peace in Northeast Asia.

Xi may be more attentive to Park’s request for Beijing’s more active role in preventing possible provocations from Pyongyang -- which is believed to be moving to conduct another long-range missile test this fall -- and pressing the recalcitrant regime to change its course of action. During her possible meeting with Putin, Park could discuss enhancing tripartite economic cooperation with the North.

On her return home, she may find more leeway in deciding on allowing the U.S. to deploy an advanced missile battery from a security viewpoint, thus easing Washington’s concern over Seoul’s closer ties with Beijing. On the back of the historical solidarity with China strengthened through her attendance in the parade, the South Korean leader would also be in a propitious position to push Japan to atone for its past wrongdoings while seeking to enhance security and economic cooperation between the two countries.

By Kim Kyung-ho

Kim Kyung-ho is an editorial writer for The Korea Herald. He can be contacted at khkim@heraldcorp.com">khkim@heraldcorp.com -- Ed.