The Bank of Korea may further cut the key interest rate this year if the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome situation worsens in Asia's fourth-largest economy, a global investment bank said Monday.
Since the first case was confirmed on May 20, South Korea has reported 150 MERS infections, the biggest outbreak outside of Saudi Arabia where the respiratory illness was first reported in 2012. As of Monday, 16 people have died and thousands have been put in quarantine.
In a report to investors, Goldman Sachs projected the BOK to hold the base rate at 1.5 percent until the second half of 2016.
The investment bank, however, added that the central bank may deliver a rate cut later this year if the MERS outbreak worsens or if the expected U.S. rate cut is delayed.
"While our base line is on hold through late next year, we do not rule out a further rate cut later this year in the event of a delay in the Fed liftoff from September, or a further worsening of the MERS situation," it said.
The forecast follows the BOK's blitzkrieg rate cut last week.
On Thursday, the central bank slashed the policy rate by a quarter percentage point to a fresh low of 1.5 percent on concerns the MERS outbreak may dent consumption and growth.
"We judged that it was desirable to act pre-emptively in order to ease the negative effects of MERS on economic sentiment and the real economy, although the course and impact (of the disease) are still uncertain," BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol said at a press conference.
The move was in line with a poll by Yonhap Infomax, the financial news arm of Yonhap News Agency. Nine out of 17 analysts and economists had projected the BOK would take action to contain growth risks stemming from the spread of the viral respiratory illness. (Yonhap)