Iran deal unlikely to rekindle U.S. interest in N.K. nuclear
By KH디지털2Published : April 3, 2015 - 09:17
A tentative deal that six world powers have reached with Iran to curb Tehran's nuclear program is unlikely to rekindle U.S interest in resolving the North Korean nuclear standoff, American experts said Thursday.
The Iran deal, announced in Lausanne, Switzerland, calls for limiting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the U.S. and others lifting sanctions that have stifled the Middle Eastern nation's economy. Negotiators plan to put the tentative deal in a final agreement by June 30.
Thursday's agreement represented the crystallization of more than a dozen years of efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The six world powers -- the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China -- have held years of the so-called "P5 plus one" negotiations with Iran.
U.S. President Barack Obama hailed Thursday's deal as "historic."
"Today, the United States, together with our allies and partners, has reached a historic understanding with Iran, which if fully implemented, will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon," Obama said. "If this framework leads to a final comprehensive deal, it will make our country, our allies and our world safer."
The Iran deal contrasts sharply with the long-running impasse in the North Korean nuclear issue.
Six-party talks aimed at resolving the North Korean impasse has been idled since the last session in late 2008. North Korea has demanded unconditional resumption of negotiations and the U.S. has maintained that Pyongyang must first take concrete steps demonstrating its denuclearization commitments.
While the six-party talks have been idling, the North has bolstered its nuclear capabilities and stockpile, conducting its second and third nuclear tests in 2009 and 2013. Some experts now warn that the communist nation's nuclear arsenal could expand to up to 100 bombs by 2020.
Many analysts have said that North Korea stands low in the U.S. priority list and that the Obama administration has little interest in resuming nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang as it has been preoccupied with the Iranian nuclear issue.
Resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue, however, is unlikely to affect the standoff with the North, experts say.
"I don't know anyone who thinks the administration is going to have a moment's time to give more attention to North Korea," said Joel Wit, a top North Korea analyst who runs the website 38 North that specializes on North Korea issues.
Wit pointed out that the U.S. has more work to do to finalize the Iran deal and implement it. In addition, the U.S. should also put together measures to bolster security ties with concerned countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, he said.
"Plus, we are entering the presidential election season and that is going to intensify as we get to June into the end of this year," he said.
Scott Snyder, a senior researcher on Korea at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, also said that the North Korean nuclear issue will likely remain on the back burner as the U.S. needs more time to put the Iran deal into force.
Though it is still premature to say how the Iran deal will affect the Obama administration's thinking toward North Korea, Snyder said, it is possible that the conversation on implementation will demand so much attention that it will "crowd out North Korea further."
"North Korea is in a different situation from Iran, because it has shown no interest in coming back to talks on minimally acceptable terms to the administration," he said.
Alan Romberg, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, also said the two nuclear issues are different.
"Iran has obviously shown a willingness to curtail its still-nascent program and forgo nuclear weapons. North Korea has not. So there really are no parallels," he said. "Perhaps Pyongyang could draw a lesson about the potential benefits if it changes its approach." (Yonhap)