While South Korea is hopeful of an inter-Korean family reunion this year, Japan is jittery over the return of its citizens kidnapped by North Korea during the Cold War.

For Japan, the abductions have been a more pressing issue than nuclear and missile threats. Japan’s continuing efforts to repatriate the abductees will deter North Korean military provocations this year, experts said in the seminar “Where do the North Korea-Japan relations stand today?” at the East Asia Foundation building in Seoul last Wednesday.

“The abduction of Japanese citizens has been a stumbling block to improving relations with North Korea,” said Keio University professor emeritus Masao Okonogi. “Although a credible report has yet to be released by the North ― one was initially due last December ― the first finding will be a lynchpin in normalizing our diplomacy.”

The issue has been Japan’s “top priority” regarding the North for the last 20 years; it prompted its participation in the six-party talks and diplomatic normalization efforts with the regime.

While the United States and the United Nations have recently ratcheted up pressure on North Korea on human rights and nuclear issues, Japan has engaged in a policy of “pressure and dialogue,” observers say.

North Korea has acknowledged having abducted 13 citizens between 1977 and 1983 to provide Japanese language and culture training for its spies. The Japanese government’s official tally is 17.

Okonogi said that Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, now in his second term, was able to win the snap election on Dec. 14 on the promise of a “strong Japan” and the vow to settle the abduction issue while in office.

“In his first term as prime minister from 2006 (to 2007), he made no progress on the issue and left behind a great burden,” Okonogi said. “Now his second prime ministership hinges on his ‘high-risk, high-reward’ pledge, which is set to determine his political life.”

Critics have pointed out that Japan’s conservative politicians have used the issue to arouse nationalism, revise the pacifist constitution and strengthen its military.

“For Abe and other nationalists, the kidnappings underlined the weakness of Japan’s postwar institutions, which were incapable of ensuring citizens’ safety and territorial integrity,” The Diplomat said in reference to Abe’s “Taking Japan Back” campaign.

North Korea had long justified its conduct as “revenge” against Japan’s wartime atrocities against Koreans. However, Ritsumeikan University visiting professor Hirai Hisashi, who participated in the seminar, said, “It also gave Japan a platform to see itself as a ‘victim’ rather than an ‘aggressor.’”

At the height of the Cold War, North Korea sent waves of secret agents in high-powered spy boats disguised as fishing vessels to kidnap Japanese citizens. Their prime targets being coastal areas, five of 17 were abducted from the port city of Niigata.

Megumi Yokota, then a 13-year-old girl, was abducted in Niigata in November 1977. She has since become a symbol of Japan’s “open wounds.” Her parents have appeared on television, given over 1,400 lectures nationwide and spoken to Japanese politicians and international organizations.

When then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited Pyongyang to resolve the issue in 2002, North Korea said that Megumi had committed suicide in 1994 after being told that she could never return home. A DNA test of her alleged remains in Japan came out negative.

Late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il acknowledged the abductions, but shirked responsibility by blaming “some agents who wanted to show their heroism and adventurism.”

North Korea opened investigations in 2002 and 2004, and admitted that 13 were kidnapped, and eight had died. But Japan rejected the findings, trusting its National Police Agency instead, which estimated that around 880 had been kidnapped.

Five abductees returned home on Oct. 15, 2002. Their children joined them after Koizumi revisited Pyongyang in 2004.

In their first major high-level meeting in a decade in Stockholm last May, North Korea agreed to “reinvestigate” the abductions through a special investigation committee. In return, Japan lifted several sanctions last July ― raising the ceiling for money transfers to North Korea from Japan, and easing the ban on the entry of North Koreans and sending of humanitarian goods.

Okonogi said that North Korea was unlikely to engage in a military provocation this year, at least until October, when the country celebrates the Workers’ Party’s 70th anniversary.

“Public opinion will not be favorable to confrontation. Therefore, the regime will pursue the double-track of nuclear and economic development, while playing cat-and-mouse through negotiations,” Hirai said.

Meanwhile, Megumi’s parents, 82-year-old Shigeru and 78-year-old Sakie, continue their search for their daughter, who would be 50 if alive. “Time is running out,” they told the press recently.

By Joel Lee (joel@heraldcorp.com)