Global investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that South Korea’s benchmark stock index KOSPI would fluctuate between 1,900 and 2,300 next year, with the earnings per share in the 6.6-28.8 percent range.

“In 2015, Korea will see an export growth of 7 percent on-year, backed by the strong won,” said Kwon Goo-hoon, the company’s managing director and chief economist for Northeast Asia.

As the five most promising industries, he picked information technology, banking, securities, construction and utility.

“The U.S. interest rate hike is most likely to take place in September, with the slight possibility of a delay,” he said.

“Though concerns persist on the consequences (of the U.S. rate hike), our research shows Korea is directly affected by the U.S. growth, not so much by its rate changes.”

But the rising expectation for higher dividends will not immediately be factored into the equity market, he said.

“The Korean market, unlike other countries such as Japan, India and Indonesia, does not react to mere expectations,” Kwon said.

“Only when companies actually start paying out higher dividends will the market go bullish.”

Kwon also predicted that the central Bank of Korea would mostly freeze the current key interest rate at 2 percent.

Concerning the ever-rising household debts, financial authorities are expected to prioritize mid- and long-term stability by freezing the rate next year, according to the official.

Late last year, Goldman Sachs forecast that Korea would grow 3.7 percent this year, based on projections that sectors such as automobile, shipbuilding and electricity stocks would be the bright spots in the economy. The prediction turned out to be a major misjudgment, with growth reaching 3.0 percent.

“The core reason (behind the misjudgment) was that the global economic recovery never really happened and this held back Korea’s exports and growth in general,” Kwon said.

By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)