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후강통에 대한 기대감이 높아지면서, 전문가들은 시행이 될 경우 한국 증시에는 큰 악재로 다가올 것이라고 예견하고 있다.
전병서 China MBA 경희대 교수는 코리아헤럴드와의 인터뷰에서 “단기적으로 저금리와 주식시장 침체로 마땅한 투자처를 찾지 못하는 국내 투자자들의 자금이 중국으로 대거 이탈할 것”이라고 전망하면서 앞으로 다가올 위기에 대응할 수 있는 전략이 필요하다고 말했다.
전병서 China MBA 경희대 교수는 코리아헤럴드와의 인터뷰에서 “단기적으로 저금리와 주식시장 침체로 마땅한 투자처를 찾지 못하는 국내 투자자들의 자금이 중국으로 대거 이탈할 것”이라고 전망하면서 앞으로 다가올 위기에 대응할 수 있는 전략이 필요하다고 말했다.
후강통은 상해거래소와 홍콩거래소의 교차거래를 가능하게 하는 제도로 외국인 개인투자자도 별로 자격제한 없이 상하이증시에 투자할 수 있다. 당초 10월 27일에 시행이 유력했으나 출범이 다소 지연된 상태다.
그는 이어 “중장기적으로 중국이 모건스탠리캐피털인터내셔널 (MSCI) 이머징마켓 지수에 편입될 가능성이 높아지면서, 국내 증시에 투자한 외국인 자금도 유출될 것”이라고 전망했다.
현재 MSCI 이머징마켓 지수 내에서 한국 시장이 차지하는 비중이 15.9 퍼센트로 가장 높지만, 중국이 편입되면 한국 비중이 줄어들게 된다.
대신증권의 오승훈 연구원도 중국이 MSCI 이머징 지수에 편입되면 국내 증시에서 6조원 가량의 외국인 매도가 발생할 수 있다고 말했다.
전병서 교수는, “이러한 충격을 완화하기 위해서는 한국이 MSCI 선진국 지수에 포함되어 새로운 외국인 자본을 유치해야 한다”고 전했다.
한국 증시는 MSCI 선진시장 편입에 6년째 도전했지만 번번히 실패해왔다. MSCI는 한국 증시의 편입 실패와 관련해서 “경제발전, 시장규모 및 유동성 등 선진시장으로서의 요건을 대부분 충족하고 있지만 외환자유화, 외국인 투자자 등록제도(ID제도) 등 시장접근성 저해 요인이 해소되지 않고 있다”고 판단했다.
후강통 시행일에 대해 전 교수는 홍콩 시위가 끝나기 전까지 실시되기 쉽지 않을 것이라고 예상했다. 중국은 지난 달 의법치국을 전면적으로 추진함으로써 불법으로 간주하는 홍콩의 시위를 용납하지 않을 것이라고 말했다.
리샤오쟈 홍콩증권거래소(HKEx) 최고경영자(CEO)는 10월 홍콩 사우스차이나모닝포스트(SCMP)와 인터뷰에서 “후강통 시행 시점이 결정되지 않았다”면서도 “후강통 시행에 대한 규제, 기술 부문의 작업은 모두 완료됐다”고 말한 바 있다.
(코리아헤럴드 신지혜 기자)
<관련 영문 기사>
Shanghai-HK connect a disaster for Korea: prof.
The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect scheme will be a disaster for South Korea’s stock market, according to a local professor specializing in Chinese finance and business.
“In the short term, there will be massive capital outflows from local investors who have not been able to make a profit here on account of the low interest rates and weak stock market,” said Jeon Byeong-seo, a professor at Kyung Hee University, in an interview with The Korea Herald.
The Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect scheme -- touted as a milestone in the liberalization of China’s capital markets -- will allow foreign individuals to buy stocks in Shanghai, while mainland investors will be permitted to directly trade in Hong Kong-listed firms.
“Over the medium to long term, this will also lead to foreign capital outflows from South Korea’s stock market as the trading scheme will increase the possibility of China’s stock market joining the Morgan Stanley Capital International indexes -- a U.S.-based provider of global stock market indexes,” Jeon said.
Currently, South Korea has the largest portion in the MSCI emerging markets index with 15.9 percent. However, if China joins the index, it will take up over 10 percent and Korea’s portion will inevitably be reduced.
When China joins the MSCI emerging markets index, there will be a foreign capital outflow of 6 trillion won ($5.4 billion) from South Korea’s stock market, according to a report released by Seoul-based Daishin Securities.
“What is crucial is how fast South Korea can get into the MSCI developed markets index to attract new foreign capital,” the professor said.
South Korea was not included in the index this year due to obstacles in foreign exchange liberalization and its foreign investor registration system.
The Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect scheme was expected to be executed in October, but the plans were deferred reportedly due to the prolonged pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.
With no formal launch date yet, Jeon predicted that Beijing may delay the scheme indefinitely if Hong Kong continues its protests. Under the program, mainland investors will also be able to trade in Hong Kong-listed companies directly.
Last month, the head of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited said the regulations and technologies related to the stock connect have been cleared.
By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)
Shanghai-HK connect a disaster for Korea: prof.
The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect scheme will be a disaster for South Korea’s stock market, according to a local professor specializing in Chinese finance and business.
“In the short term, there will be massive capital outflows from local investors who have not been able to make a profit here on account of the low interest rates and weak stock market,” said Jeon Byeong-seo, a professor at Kyung Hee University, in an interview with The Korea Herald.
The Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect scheme -- touted as a milestone in the liberalization of China’s capital markets -- will allow foreign individuals to buy stocks in Shanghai, while mainland investors will be permitted to directly trade in Hong Kong-listed firms.
“Over the medium to long term, this will also lead to foreign capital outflows from South Korea’s stock market as the trading scheme will increase the possibility of China’s stock market joining the Morgan Stanley Capital International indexes -- a U.S.-based provider of global stock market indexes,” Jeon said.
Currently, South Korea has the largest portion in the MSCI emerging markets index with 15.9 percent. However, if China joins the index, it will take up over 10 percent and Korea’s portion will inevitably be reduced.
When China joins the MSCI emerging markets index, there will be a foreign capital outflow of 6 trillion won ($5.4 billion) from South Korea’s stock market, according to a report released by Seoul-based Daishin Securities.
“What is crucial is how fast South Korea can get into the MSCI developed markets index to attract new foreign capital,” the professor said.
South Korea was not included in the index this year due to obstacles in foreign exchange liberalization and its foreign investor registration system.
The Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect scheme was expected to be executed in October, but the plans were deferred reportedly due to the prolonged pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.
With no formal launch date yet, Jeon predicted that Beijing may delay the scheme indefinitely if Hong Kong continues its protests. Under the program, mainland investors will also be able to trade in Hong Kong-listed companies directly.
Last month, the head of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited said the regulations and technologies related to the stock connect have been cleared.
By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)
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