South Korea’s export growth will likely drop in the third quarter due to unfavorable exchange rates and the flare-up in violence in Iraq, a poll conducted by a state-run trade promotion agency said Sunday.

According to the survey by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, its leading export index for the July-September period came to 51.3 points, down 0.6 from the 51.9 points predicted for the second quarter.

A reading above 50 translates into more exports, while numbers that fall short of this mark indicate a contraction.

The index was compiled through a survey of 2,137 buyers and employees of trading companies last month.

“The appreciation of the Korean won versus the U.S. dollar and the civil war erupting in Iraq between authorities in Baghdad and followers of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, are expected to impact exports, although shipments will continue to grow,” KOTRA said. (Yonhap)