On Wednesday, Koreans go to the polls to select some 4,000 local administrative and legislative officials, including mayors for Seoul and seven other major cities, governors for the nine provinces and education superintendents for these cities and provinces. 

The upcoming local elections are much different from previous ones, as they come in the wake of the Sewol ferry tragedy, one of the worst maritime disasters in Korea that claimed more than 300 lives, mostly young students.

The ferry capsized more than a month ago, but the tragedy is still unfolding, as divers are combing the sunken vessel to retrieve the bodies of the missing passengers.

Due to the tragic manmade disaster, political parties shifted into campaign mode later than usual. They also toned down their campaigns in light of the deeply mournful atmosphere pervading the nation.

Most candidates have refrained from staging noisy campaigns throughout the 13-day official campaign period, which started on May 22.

So this year’s campaigns are conspicuous by the absence of deafening theme songs blaring from loudspeakers. Also missing this time are female supporters doing dance routines on vehicles parked at busy intersections.

Subdued campaigns, some pundits suggested, could result in lower voter turnout as they would not fire up voters, who are grief-stricken over the ferry fiasco. Many voters, they said, might shun the elections altogether as the disaster heightened their disillusionment with politics.

But voter turnout is expected to be higher than previous elections. The National Election Commission predicts more than 60 percent of the electorate will head to polling stations June 4, much higher than the 54.5 percent four years ago.

The commission is counting on the early voting system, which allows people who cannot vote on the polling day to cast their ballots in advance. This system is highly likely to boost voter turnout as it effectively lengthens the voting period.

The advance voting for the Wednesday elections has already been completed. More than 4.7 million voters, representing about 11.5 percent of the electorate, went to the polls May 30-31. It marked the first time that citizens exercised their voting right in advance for a nationwide poll.

The turnout was much larger than expected, giving credence to the NEC prediction. A large voter turnout generally works against the conservative ruling Saenuri Party, as it means many progressive-minded young voters have participated in the poll.

Voter turnout matters as gubernatorial and mayoral races in Gyeonggi, Gangwon and North Chungcheong provinces and Busan, Incheon, Gwangju and Sejong cities are reportedly too close to call.

The ruling party is already at a great disadvantage due to the Sewol ferry debacle. The woeful initial response to the tragedy by the Coast Guard and other related agencies stirred up negative sentiment among the public toward President Park Geun-hye and her government.

Resentment is especially strong among “angry moms,” mothers in their 40s whose children attend high school. These women take the tragedy as if it had happened to their own children, as the majority of the ferry disaster victims were high school students.

In the presidential election in December 2012, women in their 40s were big supporters of Park. As recently as April 4, about two weeks before the ferry sank, Park’s approval ratings among women in this age group stood at 62 percent.

On May 2, however, the support rate plunged to 43 percent before edging up to 45 percent three weeks later. The ferry debacle led many former female supporters of Park to turn their backs. Their change of heart is also reflected in the approval ratings of ruling party candidates, including Chung Mong-joon who is running for Seoul mayor.

Local elections are basically about choosing people who will lead local governments and councils. In theory, they have little to do with the performance of the central government. Yet the ferry fiasco has turned the upcoming elections into an early mid-term assessment of Park’s government.

The main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy stands a good chance to take the upper hand in its relationship with the ruling party. Its victory in major constituencies will give it a greater say in setting the national agenda.

For Park and the ruling party, defeats in key races could prove to be a nightmare. They already face a powerful, obstructionist main opposition party. A triumphant NPAD could make it much more difficult for them to push ahead with their reform plans.

Before being elected president, Park had helped the ruling party win most of the elections held in recent years, thus earning the nickname “queen of elections.” Now, the ruling party has no such leader who can lead it to successive election victories.

The party has nothing much to offer to voters other than begging for their forgiveness and asking them to place their trust in it and President Park one more time. Whether this plea will work or not remains to be seen.

With only two days to go before the elections, it is time for voters to decide which candidates they support. Due to the Sewol ferry debacle that has sucked all the oxygen out of the news cycle, many voters may still have not even found out which candidates are running in their constituencies, much less comparing and judging them.

But to choose the right people for their communities, voters need to do their homework before heading to polling stations. They need to find out about the candidates, compare their stands on major issues and learn about their leadership qualities.

Voters are especially advised to assess the candidates for the top education offices of their cities or provinces. Voter interest in elections for education chiefs has generally been low. But the phenomenon is especially serious this time.

The main reason is undoubtedly the ferry debacle. But other factors are also at work, including a proliferation of candidates. The race in Gyeonggi Province, for instance, had at first 11 candidates. The figure has since been reduced to seven.

The crowded battlefield is the result of the election rule banning political parties from nominating their candidates. The rationale for this rule is that education should remain separate from politics.

But the rationale is unrealistic in light of the fact that most contests for education superintendents have been fought between conservative and liberal candidates, reflecting the partisan divide in Korean politics. Lawmakers need to review the validity of the existing rule.

By Yu Kun-ha

Yu Kun-ha is chief editorial writer of The Korea Herald. He can be reached at khyu@heraldcorp.com. ― Ed.