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북한이 지난해말 장거리 미사일 '은하 3호' 을 발사한 서해 동창리 발사장에서 새로운 공사를 잇따라 진행하고 있다는 분석이 28일(현지시간) 제기됐다.
미국 존스홉킨스대 국제관계대학원(SAIS) 산하 한미연구소는 이날 보고서에서 "최근 촬영한 상업용 위성사진을 분석한 결과 북한이 동창리 '서해 위성발사장'에서 대규모 건설프로젝트를 진행하고 있는 것으로 파악됐다"고 밝혔다.
지난 9일 촬영된 위성사진에는 이동식 미사일 발사대로 추정되는 지점이 관측됐다. 이는 지난 8월에 포착됐던 발사대와는 다른 것으로, 발사대 추가 건설 가능성이 있다고 보고서는 설명했다.
또 미사일 조립건물 등에서 이 지점으로 연결되는 새로운 도로와 2개의 새로운 다리도 건설되고 있는 것으로 나타났다.
보고서는 특히 새로운 도로는 중장비가 이동할 수 있을 만큼 견고하고 넓게 닦여지고 있다면서 이동식 미사일을 위한 이동•조립•발사 장비(TELs)를 위한 것일 가능성이 있다고 전했다.
그러면서 현재 진척 속도로 미뤄 내년 중반까지 이들 공사가 마무리될 것으로 보인다고 전망했다.
보고서는 "최종적인 판단을 내리기에는 이르지만 이런 활동은 북한이 더 큰 로켓과 새로운 이동식 미사일 발사를 위한 준비작업을 하고 있으며, 서해 발사장이 앞으로 핵심 미사일 실험장이 될 것이라는 추정을 뒷받침한다"고 밝혔다.
이밖에 보고서는 기존 발사대의 업그레이드 작업은 조만간 마무리될 가능성이 있어 지도부의 결정만 있으면 언제든 추가로 위성을 발사할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다고 덧붙였다.
<관련 영문 기사>
New work spotted at N.K. missile site as powers discuss return to talks
By Shin Hyon-hee
A fresh set of satellite images surfaced on Tuesday indicating major construction projects at North Korea’s missile launch station as the U.S. and China discuss ways to make progress on the denuclearization of the communist state.
Commercial aerial photos from Oct. 9 suggested that a second flat mobile missile launch pad may be under development in the western town of Dongchang where the North successfully fired a long-range rocket in December, according to the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. It projected the work could be completed by mid-2014.
Also possibly under construction are Sohae railroad, two new bridges and a new road linking the area with the missile assembly building, it added. The existing Unha launch pad is apparently being upgraded to facilitate future tests of larger space launch vehicles.
“While it is too soon to reach a definitive judgment, evidence is growing that these activities are intended to support the two main priorities for North Korea’s rocket program — launches of larger rockets and of new mobile missiles,” the Washington-based think tank said on its website, 38 North.
“The new road has been strengthened and widened for use by heavy vehicles, possibly including transporter-erector-launchers for mobile missiles.”
The analysis is the latest in a recent string of findings that pointed to potential developments of Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
SAIS and Seoul officials have also said that the rogue regime of Kim Jong-un had restarted a 5-megawatt reactor capable of generating plutonium for weapons, which could be used as another bargaining chip in its future nuclear negotiations with Washington.
With a five-year hiatus in six-nation denuclearization talks, South Korea, the U.S. and China are ramping up diplomatic efforts to set the right conditions for a return to dialogue.
Wu Dawei, China’s chief nuclear envoy and special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, met in Washington on Monday with his U.S. counterpart Glyn Davies, special representative for North Korea policy, and Daniel Russel, assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs at the State Department.
The two sides had “a productive set of discussions” on “how to achieve our shared goal of a denuclearized North Korea in a peaceful manner,” the department said in a statement.
Starting next week, Cho Tae-yong, Seoul’s special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, will also travel to Washington and Beijing for separate talks with Davies and Wu.
After a months-long salvo of war threats, the North, with strong backing from China, has been calling for unconditional, high-level dialogue with the U.S. and a resumption of the six-party talks also involving Japan and Russia.
During recent meetings with former U.S. administration officials and scholars in London and Beijing, Pyongyang officials including Vice Foreign Ministers Kim Kye-gwan and Ri Yong-ho stressed the regime’s focus on the economy and displayed its readiness to return to the negotiating table.
But Seoul and Washington have rejected “talks for talks’ sake,” demanding irrevocable pledges for denuclearization to prove its sincerity.
“We’re open to dialogue, but at the same time, we stick to our position that the dialogue should be one that can achieve substantive progress on the denuclearization front,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Tai-young told reporters.
“In this regard, South Korea and the U.S. are discussing with key stakeholders such as China how to bring about substantive progress (in denuclearizing the North.)”
(heeshin@heraldcorp.com)
New work spotted at N.K. missile site as powers discuss return to talks
By Shin Hyon-hee
A fresh set of satellite images surfaced on Tuesday indicating major construction projects at North Korea’s missile launch station as the U.S. and China discuss ways to make progress on the denuclearization of the communist state.
Commercial aerial photos from Oct. 9 suggested that a second flat mobile missile launch pad may be under development in the western town of Dongchang where the North successfully fired a long-range rocket in December, according to the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. It projected the work could be completed by mid-2014.
Also possibly under construction are Sohae railroad, two new bridges and a new road linking the area with the missile assembly building, it added. The existing Unha launch pad is apparently being upgraded to facilitate future tests of larger space launch vehicles.
“While it is too soon to reach a definitive judgment, evidence is growing that these activities are intended to support the two main priorities for North Korea’s rocket program — launches of larger rockets and of new mobile missiles,” the Washington-based think tank said on its website, 38 North.
“The new road has been strengthened and widened for use by heavy vehicles, possibly including transporter-erector-launchers for mobile missiles.”
The analysis is the latest in a recent string of findings that pointed to potential developments of Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
SAIS and Seoul officials have also said that the rogue regime of Kim Jong-un had restarted a 5-megawatt reactor capable of generating plutonium for weapons, which could be used as another bargaining chip in its future nuclear negotiations with Washington.
With a five-year hiatus in six-nation denuclearization talks, South Korea, the U.S. and China are ramping up diplomatic efforts to set the right conditions for a return to dialogue.
Wu Dawei, China’s chief nuclear envoy and special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, met in Washington on Monday with his U.S. counterpart Glyn Davies, special representative for North Korea policy, and Daniel Russel, assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs at the State Department.
The two sides had “a productive set of discussions” on “how to achieve our shared goal of a denuclearized North Korea in a peaceful manner,” the department said in a statement.
Starting next week, Cho Tae-yong, Seoul’s special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, will also travel to Washington and Beijing for separate talks with Davies and Wu.
After a months-long salvo of war threats, the North, with strong backing from China, has been calling for unconditional, high-level dialogue with the U.S. and a resumption of the six-party talks also involving Japan and Russia.
During recent meetings with former U.S. administration officials and scholars in London and Beijing, Pyongyang officials including Vice Foreign Ministers Kim Kye-gwan and Ri Yong-ho stressed the regime’s focus on the economy and displayed its readiness to return to the negotiating table.
But Seoul and Washington have rejected “talks for talks’ sake,” demanding irrevocable pledges for denuclearization to prove its sincerity.
“We’re open to dialogue, but at the same time, we stick to our position that the dialogue should be one that can achieve substantive progress on the denuclearization front,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Tai-young told reporters.
“In this regard, South Korea and the U.S. are discussing with key stakeholders such as China how to bring about substantive progress (in denuclearizing the North.)”
(heeshin@heraldcorp.com)
