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벤 버냉키 미국연방준비제도 의장이 19일(현지시간) 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)를 마치고 양적완화 종료 로드맵을 발표하자 글로벌 금융 시장이 출렁이고 있다.
이후 이틀 연속 하락세를 보인 코스피 지수는 20일 전일 대비 37.82포인트(2.00%) 내린 1850.49로 마감했다. 19일 뉴욕증권거래소에서 다우존스산업평균지수가 전날에 비해 206.04 포인트 하락한데 이어 한국 시장도 요동친 것이다.
원/달러 환율은 이날 14.90원 폭등해 1145.70원을 기록하였다. 미국 경기 회복 기대가 상승하며 달러 수요가 급등해 연중 최고치를 기록한 것이다
김중수 한국은행 총재는 이와 관련, 양적완화로 풀린 “글로벌 유동성이 움직일 때 어느 나라는 영향을 크게 받는데 이런 나라들은 ‘글로벌 스탠더드’에 안 맞거나 정책이 특이하기 때문”이라며 “중요한 것은 한국 특유의 유인을 없애 (유동성을) 막을 준비를 하는 것”이라고 강조했다.
연준위가 내년 자산매입을 중지함과 함께 금리인상이 불가피할 것으로 보인다. 미국은 현재 경제 회복세를 이어가 2014년에 3% 성장을 기록하고 인플레이션을 1% 대로 유지하는 것이 목표다. 버냉키 의장은 실업률이 7.0% 이하를 기록하면 양적완화를 종료하겠다고 밝혔다. 고용률이 지나치게 높으면 소비자 가격이 상승할 수 있기 때문에 실업률 7.0%를 목표로 잡는 것이다.
이와 관련, 김 총재는 지난 14일 한은 창립 63주년 행사에 참석해 연설 도중 미국 기본 금리 상승이 “(우리나라가)국제금리 상승기의 위험에 직면할 수 있다”고 밝혔다. 은행 등 금융기관은 보유채권 평가손실에 대비해 완충자본을 강화할 것으로 예상된다.
한편 채권가격과 환율이 동시에 하락하자 투자자 불안을 해소하기 위해 금융 당국이 나섰다. 윤창용 신한금융투자 이코노미스트는 “미국 공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의 직후 버냉키 의장이 출구전략 로드맵을 제시해 불확실성이 해소됐다”며 “국제 금융시장이 요동쳤던 흐름이 차츰 안정될 것”이라고 전망했다. (코리아 헤럴드 박형기 기자)
<관련 영어 기사>
Korean financial markets tumble on planned QE exit
Authorities on alert against increased volatility following U.S. monetary stimulus phaseout
By Park Hyong-ki
The Korean financial markets tumbled Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled plans to phase out its quantitative easing that led investors worldwide to unload their stocks.
The Korean benchmark KOSPI declined for the second straight day, finishing at 1,850.49 on Thursday. It fell 2 percent from Wednesday, following an overnight loss on Wall Street where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points.
The Korean won fell about 15 won to a year-to-date low of 1,145.7 won to the U.S. dollar as demand for the safe-haven greenback gained momentum on the back of the U.S. recovery expectations.
Korea, susceptible to external macroeconomic conditions given its high exports exposure, would need to be on alert to the possibility of increased capital flow and foreign exchange volatility stemming from the sequenced reversal process of the Fed’s unorthodox monetary policy.
Bank of Korea Gov. Kim Choong-soo recently foresaw this systemic risk, saying that the cost of advanced economies’ exit from quantitative easing would “not be low” for Korea, and that policymakers need to stand by to tame potential financial instability.
The Fed’s planned halt of asset purchasing next year is expected to accompany a rate hike as the world’s largest economy improves this and next year, with growth reaching 3 percent in 2014, and as the U.S. central bank aims to keep inflation in check at 1 percent, analysts said.
The Fed said it would gradually conclude its quantitative easing as long as the unemployment rate falls below the 7 percent threshold. This range is the usual target as a high job rate could result in an unwanted outcome of higher consumer prices.
A rise in the U.S.’ key rate could trigger a “risk of global interest rate rises,” BOK Gov. Kim said during his speech to commemorate the 63rd anniversary of the Korean central bank last week.
This would lead to a fall in bond values that could preemptively lead Korean financial institutions such as banks to boost their capital buffers.
The fall in Korean stocks and currency prompted financial regulatory authorities to calm investors by keeping close tabs on the markets and assuring that there was nothing to fear, as the country’s financial system is prepared to counter any disruptions from the QE tapering.
“Global financial markets will soon stabilize as uncertainties wane following the announcement of the Fed’s timeline for a QE exit,” said Yoon Chang-yong, an analyst at Shinhan Investment. (hkp@heraldcorp.com)
Korean financial markets tumble on planned QE exit
Authorities on alert against increased volatility following U.S. monetary stimulus phaseout
By Park Hyong-ki
The Korean financial markets tumbled Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled plans to phase out its quantitative easing that led investors worldwide to unload their stocks.
The Korean benchmark KOSPI declined for the second straight day, finishing at 1,850.49 on Thursday. It fell 2 percent from Wednesday, following an overnight loss on Wall Street where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points.
The Korean won fell about 15 won to a year-to-date low of 1,145.7 won to the U.S. dollar as demand for the safe-haven greenback gained momentum on the back of the U.S. recovery expectations.
Korea, susceptible to external macroeconomic conditions given its high exports exposure, would need to be on alert to the possibility of increased capital flow and foreign exchange volatility stemming from the sequenced reversal process of the Fed’s unorthodox monetary policy.
Bank of Korea Gov. Kim Choong-soo recently foresaw this systemic risk, saying that the cost of advanced economies’ exit from quantitative easing would “not be low” for Korea, and that policymakers need to stand by to tame potential financial instability.
The Fed’s planned halt of asset purchasing next year is expected to accompany a rate hike as the world’s largest economy improves this and next year, with growth reaching 3 percent in 2014, and as the U.S. central bank aims to keep inflation in check at 1 percent, analysts said.
The Fed said it would gradually conclude its quantitative easing as long as the unemployment rate falls below the 7 percent threshold. This range is the usual target as a high job rate could result in an unwanted outcome of higher consumer prices.
A rise in the U.S.’ key rate could trigger a “risk of global interest rate rises,” BOK Gov. Kim said during his speech to commemorate the 63rd anniversary of the Korean central bank last week.
This would lead to a fall in bond values that could preemptively lead Korean financial institutions such as banks to boost their capital buffers.
The fall in Korean stocks and currency prompted financial regulatory authorities to calm investors by keeping close tabs on the markets and assuring that there was nothing to fear, as the country’s financial system is prepared to counter any disruptions from the QE tapering.
“Global financial markets will soon stabilize as uncertainties wane following the announcement of the Fed’s timeline for a QE exit,” said Yoon Chang-yong, an analyst at Shinhan Investment. (hkp@heraldcorp.com)
