In his 2012 book “No One’s World,” political scientist Charles Kupchan sketches a global landscape with multiple centers of power and diverse versions of modernity.

The West and the rising rest will compete over principles, status and geopolitical interests as the sea change unfolds, he argues.

Despite Pyongyang’s security threat, South Korea is well positioned to take advantage of the pluralistic order due to its economic vigor and democratic vibrancy, the scholar said in a recent interview with The Korea Herald.

“I’m pretty confident that where the world is heading toward is one that will be very diverse politically, ideologically and geopolitically,” he said.

“I think that South Korea is, with the exception of its troubled relationship with its brother, in reasonably good shape. Its economy is relatively healthy and there is a reasonable level of geopolitical security.” 

But lack of regional integration, historical mistrust and deepening territorial discords with its neighbors remain a critical challenge for Seoul’s future, he said.

“You know one thing that I think is missing is greater regional integration,” said the professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in Washington and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Relations between Seoul and Tokyo have worsened over Japanese rightists’ recent denials of its wartime atrocities. Tokyo is also at odds with its neighbors over sovereignty claims over the Dokdo islets in the East Sea and Senkaku or Diaoyu in the East China Sea.

“Abe seems to be turning back the clock and adhering to a much more conventional Japanese foreign policy of hugging the U.S. and doubling down on nationalism and historical issues,” he said.

“But that seems to be the direction of the government that he’s put together. Hopefully they’ll moderate over time.”

For Seoul’s part, he called for efforts to foster trust with neighbors to overcome its strategic dilemma between the U.S. and China and achieve lasting peace.

“South Korea will be comfortable in its skin only when it is comfortable with its neighborhood. That means ties with Japan and China need to be much better and much deeper,” he said.

“And that regional integration has to be self-sustaining. Right now it’s too dependent on the U.S. That’s stable for now but real peace in Northeast Asia requires trust between South Korea and its longstanding neighbors ― Japan and China.”

Meanwhile, Beijing’s growing assertiveness has precipitated doubts about its “peaceful rise,” prompting neighbors to look for U.S. reassurance.

China, for its part, has been suspicious about Washington’s strategic rebalancing toward Asia which it regards as a containment policy.

In the eyes of the scholar, the refocus has been poorly presented because it is a strategy that will unfold over the next several years, perhaps decades.

And in recent years Beijing has also made the so-called pivot a “self-fulfilling prophecy” as its foreign policy has become more shaped by domestic nationalism, making neighbors uneasy, Kupchan said.

“That has led to an unhealthy dynamic of growing tension between the United States and China, and a dynamic which if left unchanged will create a zero-sum view of the strategic game in Northeast Asia,” he said.

“In some ways it complicates the diplomacy of South Korea because it forces you to make choices but you would rather not have to make them in an explicit way.”

With their war of nerves deepening anxiety around Northeast Asia, the two powers should intensify mutual understandings and join forces to tackle global issues, he urged.

“I hope that over the next year or so the momentum gets pushed to the other direction. That requires Washington to get away from this focus on the military dimension and to put new attention on commercial, cultural, political engagement,” Kupchan said.

“And I think it requires China to exercise greater restraint and to make clear that in dealing with territorial disputes it will rely on diplomacy, negotiations and procedures that are consistent with international norms.”

By Shin Hyon-hee (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)