Seoul’s acceptance on Thursday of Pyongyang’s overture for dialogue would offer a chance to reduce their antagonism, but it might not yield an immediate breakthrough in their ties strained under the latter’s nuclear adventurism, experts said.

In a surprise announcement, North Korea offered to hold government talks on resuming a joint industrial park in Gaeseong, tours to Mount Geumgang, communication channels and reunions of separated families. But it did not touch on its nuclear development.

The overture came a day before presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping hold their first summit in California, where Pyongyang-related issues including Beijing’s recent forced repatriation of the nine young North Korean defectors are expected to top its agenda.

Taking office in February with a vow to strengthen the strategic partnership with China while maintaining the robust security alliance with the U.S., President Park Geun-hye is also to hold the summit with Xi later this month.

The overture also coincided with Seoul’s celebration of Memorial Day where Park reiterated Pyongyang should join her “peninsular confidence-building” process, under which she seeks to normalize ties with the North based on a robust deterrence.

Experts said Seoul should capitalize on the emerging mood for talks, but should be cautious not to become mired again in the recurrent situation where the North might seek political, economic concessions after recent bouts of virulent saber-rattling.

“Though the North fell short of touching on nuclear issues, the South should take advantage of it to manage the fluid security environment on the peninsula and secure more leverage over a wide range of pending issues,” said Chang Yong-seok, an analyst at the Institute of Peace and Unification Studies affiliated with Seoul National University.

After the suspension of the Gaeseong park -- the only remaining symbol of inter-Korean economic cooperation -- in April with all official communication channels severed, concerns have been raised that Seoul’s influence over the North would be seriously limited.

Seoul’s leverage over the North could also weaken as Pyongyang has sought to enhance ties with Beijing and Japan while it continues to hope for direct talks with Washington as “nuclear powers,” observers noted.

Given Park’s dialogue-based approach toward the North, Seoul would be more than willing to join inter-Korean talks, but a major change in their ties may not come anytime soon, observers said.

“From Seoul’s perspective, should Pyongyang not show any sincerity in its denuclearization efforts, it would not be easy for them to move their relationship forward substantially,” said Kim Young-soo, North Korea expert at Sogang University.

“Should there be talks soon, it would be about exchanging their views over pending issues in a cool, if you like to call that way, manner, as opposed to being hyped up about the talks itself as we did in the past.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has recently shown his desire toward dialogue when he sent his special envoy Choe Ryong-hae, the director of the General Political Bureau of the North Korean military, to Beijing last month.

The gesture came as its only major ally China has recently joined the international sanctions against it and stopped doing business with several North Korean banks.

Welcoming such moves by China, Seoul and Washington have already clarified that fruitful talks would not be possible should Pyongyang be unwilling to renounce its nuclear arsenal.

Whatever the intentions behind the surprise overture for talks may be, the wide range of agenda items the North put forward suggested its sense of urgency, experts noted. Among them were the reunions of separated families -- a card usually used ahead of the Korean Thanksgiving Day in the autumn.

After its saber-rattling this spring, which outsiders viewed as a way to raise the stakes in future negotiations with the international community and strengthen the legitimacy of the fledgling leadership, the North only faced deeper international isolation.

The recently rekindled issue of North Korean refugees who fled their homeland away from poverty and suppression has further added to the escalating criticism of the autocratic regime.

“The offer of talks is an apparent attempt to avoid any further criticism that could come out of the upcoming summit between Obama and Xi,” said Ahn Chan-il, the director of the World North Korea Research Center. “It also wanted to show to the world that it was the first to make gestures for dialogue and lead the peace initiatives.”

Some argued that the abrupt offensive for talks underscored the North Korean leader’s lack of ability for policy coordination and possible conflicts among elites over their country’s policy directions.

“It is ludicrous that the North has churned out public verbal accusations against South Korean President Park and Seoul’s unification, and then out of the blue, launches this offensive for dialogue,” said Chang of the Institute of Peace and Unification Studies.

“This shows Kim’s lackluster performance in terms of policy coordination with elites, and policy conflicts between conservatives and those favoring diplomatic dialogue.”

Chang also added the cash-strapped North’s proposal to discuss the reopening of the suspended industrial park and tours to Mount Geumgang underlines the pressing need to enhance investor sentiment sapped by its recent unilateral decision to halt the park‘s operations.

All of the 123 South Korean firms were forced to stop their operations at the complex on April 9 when some 53,000 North Korean workers did not come to work under the directive of Pyongyang, which was angry over the stepped-up international sanctions against it and South Korea-U.S. annual military drills.

Seoul halted the Geumgang tour program after the North shot dead a South Korean tourist who strayed into an off-limits zone around the resort off the North’s east coast. Seoul has demanded an investigation into the shooting and full-scale safety measures for the tour resumption.

By Song Sang-ho
(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)