The 2012 economic growth outlook officially stands at 3.5 percent. But few believe that is attainable. Instead, the consensus among economic policymakers is that growth will fall below 2.5 percent. Noting that output increased a mere 0.2 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter, a top economic policymaker was quoted as saying that Korea cannot go against the global slowdown.

Among those bearing the brunt of the economic slowdown are small- and medium-sized enterprises. Creditors put 1,356 such companies under scrutiny in July this year, up 20.1 percent from last year. They ordered structural reform for 97 of them ― 20 more than last year.

Will the Korean economy fare better next year? Probably it will, if not as much as the administration expects.

The administration’s 2013 budget request, now pending approval from the National Assembly, is based on the assumption that gross domestic product will grow 4 percent next year. Despite the worsening global outlook, Finance Minister Bahk Jae-wan maintained this tenor when he recently said growth would near 4 percent in 2013.

But the administration apparently is more optimistic than warranted, given the caution exercised by leading economic think tanks in the nation. Coming closest to the administration’s outlook is the Hyundai Research Institute, whose estimate is at 3.5 percent. Forecasts by other economic research institutes range from 3.4 percent to 2.8 percent.

Among the think tanks is the LG Economic Research Institute, which is considering revising downward its 3.3 percent growth forecast. It says recovery is slow coming.

In the face of an unrelenting economic crisis, Samsung Card Co. is scheduled to take applications for early retirement this week. Two more affiliates of Samsung Group are said to be preparing to follow suit.

Efforts to cut the payroll are not limited to the Samsung Group affiliates. Hyundai Heavy Industries shocked the business community when the largest shipbuilder in the nation announced last month that it would accept applications for early retirement. Was Hyundai’s first such retrenchment since its foundation in 1970 a signal that the shipbuilding industry, one of the nation’s economic pillars, was shaken to its roots by the global economic crisis of European origin?

Creditors’ demands for structural reform at small- and medium-sized enterprises and the introduction of early retirement programs at large corporations may be nothing but the foretaste of what is yet to come in the longer term. A long-awaited recovery, if it starts next year as the administration expects, may be only a short-lived lull, given warnings from abroad that the Korean economy will soon go into a low-growth period.

Foreign Policy, a U.S.-based bimonthly, warned of low growth, claiming that Korea is following the footsteps of Japan, with its population fast graying and its birthrate remaining well below the replacement level.

The Conference Board, a U.S. non-profit business membership and research association, was more specific about Korea’s growth outlook. It said the Korean economy would grow at an annual average rate of 2.4 percent in 2013-18 and 1.2 percent in 2019-25. In its long-term global economic outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also said the average annual growth rate would be at 1.6 percent in 2011-60.

These forecasts are a rude wake-up call for Korea, which has been unwarrantedly complacent about its future. Still, it may be better positioned than Japan because it can learn from Japan’s mistakes, as Foreign Policy noted. Blinded by its past phenomenal success, Japan failed to push for economic reform. Instead, it kept interest rates low and continued to expand public investments, undermining its fiscal health.

True, Korea’s public finances are in better shape than those of many other OECD members. Still, Korea needs to keep its welfare programs under control and its budgets balanced.

At the same time, Korea needs to spend more on education and research and development. It also needs to foster service industries for job creation.

Korea will also have to think outside the box if it is to surmount the two key obstacles to growth ― the low birthrate and the aging population. In addition to raising the retirement age and engaging more women in economic activities, it has to consider breaking the taboo of opening the doors wide for foreign labor. It may consider utilizing North Korean labor as well.