Unusual publicity drive improves his image, loosens security awareness in South, experts say


North Korea’s media showing a Western-style musical performance and its fledgling leader with his attractive wife visiting a kindergarten and theme park has apparently helped improve its negative image of being belligerent and far from international norms.

But at a time when South Korean political parties are striving to court voters ahead of the December presidential election, Seoul should carefully watch what the meticulously choreographed moves by Kim Jong-un mean, experts said.

“Other than targeting the domestic audience, the recent moves could also target the South. If the North shows its hard-line stance, it could help conservatives here. But if it indicates a change in its policy, it could be advantageous for the political left here,” said Ahn Chan-il, director of the World North Korea Research Center.

“The North appears to be trying to forge an environment in the South that could benefit them (ahead of the election). Young voters, in particular, are likely to be impacted by what appears to be a positive change in the North.”

Observers pointed out that the leader’s recent moves, seen by foreign media as signs of his willingness to open up, came as the North continues to bolster its military readiness along the border.

The North has recently dispatched scores of its military helicopters to frontline units located less than 40 kilometers from the heavily-fortified border. In April, Pyongyang also amended its constitution to document its status as a nuclear-armed state.

Despite unceasing military threats from the North, which killed 50 South Koreans in two fatal attacks in 2010, the scenes of the young leader in Pyongyang portrayed as a friendly, caring head of state have apparently eased antagonism toward the North particularly among young South Koreans, experts said.

But what the South should caution against is a loosening of security preparedness, they noted.

To the surprise of many here, the North’s state broadcaster aired a flamboyant performance earlier this month, in which characters symbolizing American capitalist culture such as Mickey Mouse appeared.

The North also revealed that the mysterious woman who was shown accompanying Kim Jong-un on several official occasions was his wife Ri Sol-ju, a move which experts said could help overcome one of the leader’s weaknesses ― young age.

After these incidents were reported, the media here have churned out articles making positive predictions of the North’s future. But experts said the South must be more prudent in interpreting the moves made by the leader of the reclusive state.

“The image of the North on the international stage has seriously worsened after it defied international opposition and launched a long-range rocket in April. Even China has shown some level of distrust to its impoverished ally,” said Kwon Tae-young, advisor to the non-profit Korea Research Institute for Strategy.

“The North appears to be in the process of making a positive image for the outside audience. On top of that, the recent moves by the leader appear to be aimed at making a positive turn when he is striving to consolidate power in the state.”

Some disagree with the idea of the North Korean leader making moves to influence the presidential election in the South.

“I personally believe that Kim may not have room in his capacity to think about what is happening in the South as he is now engrossed in strengthening his legitimacy as a leader,” said Lee Cho-won, political science professor at Chung-Ang University.

“As we witnessed in the case of the ill-fated military leader Ri Yong-ho, there appear to be many internal issues concerning the process of his power consolidation. North Korea’s propaganda bodies could think about influencing the election, but not him.”

Some signs of a military power struggle were detected after the North dismissed General Staff Chief Ri, the centerpiece of the 1.19-milion-strong military, from all positions, a move analysts said was aimed at diluting the influence of the rigid military in his state governance.

Whether Pyongyang has the intention of influencing the presidential election here or not, experts said that North Korea will not be a crucial variable in South Korea’s major elections.

“I don’t think the North’s recent moves will have any definitive impact (on the South’s elections),” said Choi Young-jin, politics professor at Chung-Ang University.

“The North could influence the older generations here who are interested in affairs concerning the North and have some sort of displeasure with the communist state. But how much impact it will have on them is still uncertain.”

As the South Korean media makes its own interpretations of what the North’s media reported, experts stressed the need to remain “calm and balanced.”

“We should not be rattled by the moves on the surface when trying to take in all variables in grasping what is happening in the North,” said Yoon Pyung-joong, political philosophy professor at Hanshin University.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)