The Korea Herald

피터빈트

[Editorial] Military adventurism

By Korea Herald

Published : April 1, 2012 - 20:40

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The window of diplomacy toward North Korea is closing as the date for its long-range missile launch is fast approaching. Defying international pressure against its plan, the communist state is proceeding with preparations for what it claims to be a satellite launch, scheduled for any time between April 12 and 16.

What will follow is nothing but international sanctions. The United States, which vows to overhaul its approach toward North Korea if it pushes ahead with its plan, has already taken punitive action.

As an unmistakable warning against the North Korean move, the United States has recently suspended its plan to provide the communist state with 240,000 tons of food aid. This will make the hunger-stricken North feel the pinch even more acutely.

At a recent U.S. congressional hearing, Peter Lavoy, an acting assistant secretary of defense, cited as a reason “no confidence about the monitoring mechanisms that ensure that the food assistance goes to the starving people and not the regime elite.” But few would accept this explanation at face value.

The halt in food aid was undoubtedly the first concrete punitive action Washington had taken since it recently decided not to reward North Korea’s bad behavior. President Barack Obama, on a visit to Seoul for the March 26-27 Nuclear Security Summit, warned the North would face additional sanctions should it proceed with its planned missile launch.

North Korea was grossly misguided if it believed that the United States and other members of the international community were gullible enough to buy its satellite story. Even China went out of its way and chided Pyongyang.

The United States regards the missile program as posing a “direct and serious threat” to the security of South Korea and other U.S. allies in the region, as James Miller, the nominee for the post of undersecretary of defense for policy, testified at his recent Senate confirmation hearing. As such, he sad, the United States, in the event of a missile launch, will overhaul its approach toward North Korea, which undoubtedly has been conciliatory.

The planned launch is one of the two acts of military adventurism that a South Korean think tank predicted Pyongyang would take this year. In January, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said that North Korea’s new young leader, Kim Jong-un, would likely order another missile launch and a third nuclear test this year to consolidate his grip on power and demonstrate his leadership.

In an apparent attempt to forestall such military adventurism, the United States concluded an agreement on food aid with North Korea on Feb. 29. It agreed to provide the North with 240,000 tons of food on condition that it temporarily suspended uranium enrichment at Yongbyon and put a moratorium on nuclear missile tests. They also agreed to negotiate the terms under which the multilateral denuclearization talks would resume.

During the talks that led to the Feb. 29 accord, the North Korean negotiators reportedly broached the idea of sending a satellite into orbit. According to a news report, the U.S. negotiators voiced strong opposition, saying it would violate U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874 ― a resolution banning North Korea, among others, from engaging in any launch using ballistic missile technology.

Two weeks after the agreement was concluded, North Korea announced that it would launch a satellite between April 12 and 16. It was using an old tactic of reneging or threatening to renege on an existing deal to start negotiations anew for greater gains. In response, U.S. President Obama said, “Bad behavior will not be rewarded.”

But withholding the shipment of food aid may not be a punishment strong enough to thwart the launch. More effective would be a warning from China. If there is any country capable of dissuading the North against the military adventurism, it is China. After all, North Korea relies on China for energy and other imports.

China’s active role in this regard should be taken up as one of the main agenda items when South Korean, Chinese and Japanese foreign ministers hold talks on trilateral cooperation in China’s seaport city of Ningbo on Saturday and Sunday.