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WASHINGTON/HAWAII (Yonhap News) ― North Korea is likely to restart its typical nuclear gambit in the spring after digesting the death of its leader and taking time for the new power structure to solidify, according to a group of North Korea experts.
The North may conduct another nuclear test this spring under a game plan crafted under Kim Jong-il before his death and expected to be carried out by his third son, Kim Jong-un, they said at forum hosted by the East-West Center in Honolulu.
“I don’t think we’re going to see sudden collapse and instability in North Korea,” said Michael Green, a visiting
East-West Center fellow and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
He said the situation is likely to be quiet for a few months while the North is in mourning and its new power structure solidifies.
Green said he expects that the new leadership will flex its muscles starting as early as the spring or summer.
North Korea aims to become a ”mighty and prosperous state” in 2012, the centennial of the birth of the founding father Kim Il-sung.
“I think what we know about their program suggests pretty strongly that they are preparing for a third nuclear test and maybe missile tests,” Green said at the forum earlier this week. “The North Koreans have a game plan to demonstrate then to the world and their people their full nuclear weapons capability.”
Green served as special assistant to President George W. Bush for national security affairs and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2005.
The other panelists were East-West Center President Charles Morrison; Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS and a board member of the Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies, and Raymond Burghardt, former deputy chief of mission in South Korea and director of the East-West Seminars program.
Cossa said, “North Korea already has a game plan in place and my guess is it will continue along that plan.”
He said he doubts the effectiveness of talks with North Korea.
“If we do go back to talks,” he said, “I don’t think anyone really expects that it will really lead to denuclearization.”
He said the talks will probably provide “the appearance of progress,” which is important to China and others.
“We’ve so lowered the bar that things will occur that will be declared as breakthroughs that are relatively meaningless,” he said.
He pointed out the past track record of the North’s provocations and negotiations.
“They are now in the phase of behaving to see what they can get for not misbehaving and that cycle usually lasts about six months or a year,” he said.
The North may conduct another nuclear test this spring under a game plan crafted under Kim Jong-il before his death and expected to be carried out by his third son, Kim Jong-un, they said at forum hosted by the East-West Center in Honolulu.
“I don’t think we’re going to see sudden collapse and instability in North Korea,” said Michael Green, a visiting
East-West Center fellow and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
He said the situation is likely to be quiet for a few months while the North is in mourning and its new power structure solidifies.
Green said he expects that the new leadership will flex its muscles starting as early as the spring or summer.
North Korea aims to become a ”mighty and prosperous state” in 2012, the centennial of the birth of the founding father Kim Il-sung.
“I think what we know about their program suggests pretty strongly that they are preparing for a third nuclear test and maybe missile tests,” Green said at the forum earlier this week. “The North Koreans have a game plan to demonstrate then to the world and their people their full nuclear weapons capability.”
Green served as special assistant to President George W. Bush for national security affairs and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2005.
The other panelists were East-West Center President Charles Morrison; Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS and a board member of the Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies, and Raymond Burghardt, former deputy chief of mission in South Korea and director of the East-West Seminars program.
Cossa said, “North Korea already has a game plan in place and my guess is it will continue along that plan.”
He said he doubts the effectiveness of talks with North Korea.
“If we do go back to talks,” he said, “I don’t think anyone really expects that it will really lead to denuclearization.”
He said the talks will probably provide “the appearance of progress,” which is important to China and others.
“We’ve so lowered the bar that things will occur that will be declared as breakthroughs that are relatively meaningless,” he said.
He pointed out the past track record of the North’s provocations and negotiations.
“They are now in the phase of behaving to see what they can get for not misbehaving and that cycle usually lasts about six months or a year,” he said.
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Articles by Korea Herald
