Hours after North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s death on Saturday, news reports out of Seoul said Pyongyang had agreed to suspend its enriched uranium nuclear weapons program.

This was a sign that denuclearization talks, stalled since April 2009 when North Korea pulled out, could resume. It was a key demand of the United States before it would agree to the resumption of talks.

The agreement, struck between North Korean and U.S. negotiators in talks in Beijing last Thursday and Friday, included 240,000 tons worth of food aid from the U.S. The U.S. was set to confirm the deal sometime this week.

Now, with Kim’s passing, the news out of Washington is that the Obama administration may postpone decisions on reengaging Pyongyang in nuclear talks and providing it with food aid.

Meanwhile, the Chinese have moved swiftly to throw their support behind Kim’s son and successor, Kim Jong-un. In a condolence message, the Chinese Communist Party said: “We believe the (North Korean) people will carry forward the will of Comrade Kim Jong-il and closely unite around the Korean Workers’ Party, and under the leadership of Comrade Kim Jong-un, turn grief into strength and march forward in building a strong socialist country and realizing a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.”

Another statement, from the Chinese Foreign Ministry paid tribute to the elder Kim, calling him “a great leader of the North Korean people and a dear friend to the people of China.”

Such support from the Chinese for the Kim regime would go some way to stabilizing the situation in Pyongyang. This is important as the younger Kim was designated as a successor only last year, and had had little time to learn the ropes of leadership, let alone consolidate his position.

The biggest worry of the Chinese is instability and even chaos during the period of power transition, particularly given the weak position of Kim Jong-un, who is perhaps not yet 30.

So, you can bet your bottom dollar that Beijing will do what it can to shore up the current regime and keep it stable.

While the elder Kim’s death was sudden, it was not unanticipated, given that he had been in poor health since a reported stroke in 2008. Even as Pyongyang prepared for succession, Beijing had also likely been preparing for it.

It is imperative for China not only to keep North Korea stable during the power transition, but also to continue to exert influence over its close ally.

It would want to prevent waves of North Korean refugees from spilling over the border into its territory, which would likely happen if the situation in the North turns chaotic.

Beijing would also want to maintain sway over Pyongyang as this would ensure that it remains a buffer state between it, and the U.S. and its allies.

And China is in a good position to do all this. In recent years, Pyongyang had faced greater isolation as a result of Kim’s brinkmanship with the U.S. over its nuclear weapons program, and become ever more reliant on the Chinese for political and economic support.

John Delury, a scholar of China and the two Koreas at Yonsei University in Seoul, told The New York Times: “Chinese diplomats are the only ones who can pick up the phone and talk to North Korean counterparts about what is going on, what to expect. This reveals the fatal weakness in Washington and Seoul’s overreliance on sanctions over the past three years.”

Kim had visited China four times in the past 18 months, mainly to gain economic support.

Yet, he visited Russia for the first time in a decade in August this year, meeting Russian President Dmitry Medvedev near Lake Baikal. The visit was to drum up economic support, but, one might add, also to reduce his country’s reliance on its other giant neighbor next door.

Russia has proposed a trans-Korea gas pipeline running through the North to South Korea, but the South Koreans are wary of having their gas supply held to ransom by Pyongyang. As a result, negotiations for the pipeline are still ongoing.

However, in October, Russian Railways started work on the North Korean side to restore a 10,000km railway line between the two Koreas.

On the eve of his death, Kim’s negotiators had struck a tentative deal with the Americans aimed at resuming nuclear talks and perhaps bringing his country in from the cold.

Whether the North Korean leader was seriously trying to change course or just doing his usual blowing of hot and cold is no longer important.

His passing has presented an opportunity for change which is up to the Americans to grasp. They can hold the younger Kim at arm’s length and push him further into Chinese arms. Or they can extend a friendly hand and help guide him into the international fold.

In other words, they can choose to either engage or contain the new leadership.

The Americans have often criticised the Chinese for not using their influence on Pyongyang to get it to give up its nuclear weapons program. Now, with the power transition, Washington has an opportunity to build its own influence over the North Koreans.

It could, for a start, go through with the deal struck last week, beginning with the delivery of the 240,000 tonnes of food for which the North Koreans would be grateful.

How the Americans behave towards North Korea will go some way to determine the shape of its rivalry with China in the North-east Asian region.

It could also determine the success of their much-touted pivot towards Asia.

By Goh Sui Noi 

(The Straits Times)
(Asia News Network)