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정부는 31일 북한이 3차 핵실험을 강행할 경우, 미ㆍ중ㆍ일과 논의해 지금까지보다 더욱 강력하게 북한을 제제할 것을 검토 중이라고 밝혔다.
정부는 이날 청와대에서 외교안보장관회의에서 북한 핵실험 시도에 대한 대책과 장거리 로켓 발사 이후 대북 제재 수위를 논의하며 “북한이 도발을 계속할 시 “엄중한 결과”를 초래할 것이라고 경고했다.
“정부는 북한이 일체의 도발적 언동을 중단하고 안보리 결의를 포함한 국제적 의무를 준수할 것을 촉구하며, 북한이 상황을 오판하여 또다시 도발을 강행한다면 엄중한 결과를 초래할 것임을 경고한다”라고 청와대는 밝혔다.
이와 관해 이명박 대통령은 북한이 추가적인 도발을 할 시 “강력한 대응태세를 갖추라”고 김관진 국방부 장관에게 지시했다.
한 정부 당국자는 “모든 가능한 옵션을 고려 중”이며 관련 국가들과 논의가 오가고 있다고 말했다. 그러나 군사적인 대응 또한 고려 중인지 여부에 대해서는 확답을 하지 않았다.
군은 북한의 핵실험과 군사도발에 대비, 경계태세를 평시수준인 3단계에서 한 단계 높은 2단계로 상향 조정하고 특히 군사분계선(NLL) 등 접적지역에서 경계를 더욱 강화한 것으로 알려졌다.
정부 당국자는 북한이 핵실험을 시행할 준비는 모두 완료되었다며 “군사적, 기술적 판단이 아니라 정치적 판단만이 남아있을 뿐”이라고 설명했다. 최근 언론보도를 통해 2006년과 2009년 두 차례에 걸쳐 핵실험이 시행되었던 풍계리 핵실험장에서 인력과 차량 움직임이 늘었다는 것이 확인되었다.
만약 정부가 추가적인 대북제재를 감행할 경우, 유엔 안보리가 지난주 최근 북한의 로켓 발사를 규탄하고 대북제재를 확대, 강화한 결의안 2087호보다 훨씬 포괄적인 제재방안을 담을 것으로 예상된다. 일각에서는 한ㆍ미ㆍ일이 북한의 해외자본을 동결하는 등 기존에 논의되었던 제재안보다 더욱 강력한 제재안을 채택할 지도 모른다고 보고 있다.
또한 우리나라가 다음달 1일부터 유엔 안보리 의장국이 되기 때문에, 추가적인 대북 제재를 가할 수 있는 모멘텀을 얻을 수 있다는 시각도 있다.
익명을 요구한 정부 당국자는 “안보리 의장국이 되면 어젠다를 설정하고 회의를 소집할 수 있는 권한이 주어진다”고 설명했다.
이 당국자는 또한 북한이 핵실험을 추진하는 동기 이면에 민심, 군심을 결집시키기 위한 의도가 반영되어 있는 것으로 보인다며 “국제사회 제재가 ‘이 정도 면 되겠다’는 오판을 내릴 정도로 가혹하지 않다고 판단한 것 같다”라고 설명했다.
전문가들은 중국 역시 국제적인 제재에 동참할 것으로 예측했는데, 만약 북한이 핵무장을 하게 될 경우 중국은 동북아 지역에서 유일한 핵국가라는 위치를 잃고 일본을 포함한 국가들 사이에서 군비경쟁이 유발될 가능성이 있기 때문이다.
<관련 영문 기사>
Seoul warns N.K. of ‘grave consequences’
By Song Sang-ho
Seoul is considering pushing for tougher sanctions against Pyongyang in tandem with the U.S., China and Japan, officials said Thursday, warning of “grave consequences” for its possible third nuclear test.
A senior Seoul official said “all possible options will be on the table,” but remained reluctant to touch on a military option, stressing that consultation with the concerned countries was under way.
President Lee Myung-bak instructed Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin to ensure the top readiness posture, noting that the North was ratcheting up military tension on the peninsula at a time of a power transition in Seoul.
Lee and senior officials in charge of security and foreign affairs met earlier in the day to explore punitive sanctions in the event of an atomic test and ways to address public anxiety over it.
“The (Seoul) government urges North Korea to stop all provocative speeches and abide by international obligations, including those stipulated in U.N. Security Council resolutions,” said Cheong Wa Dae in a statement issued after the top security meeting.
“We warn that should the North make another provocation based on its misjudgment of the situation, it will face grave consequences.”
While mobilizing key intelligence assets to monitor the North, the South Korean military raised its readiness posture one notch and readied all frontline units, including naval forces operating near the Northern Limit Line, a de facto maritime border, for possible provocations.
The defense chief inspected an army unit near the tense inter-Korean border, ordering the military to keep high vigilance.
“It is crucial to let the enemy know our strong posture and principle that we automatically strike back sufficiently and accurately at the origin of the provocation,” Defense Minister Kim said during the inspection.
Seoul officials believe that the North has already completed all necessary preparations to conduct a nuclear test at anytime at the Punggye-ri test site in the country’s northeast, where it carried out two atomic tests in 2006 and 2009. They said that conducting the test would be a “political” decision, not a technical or military one.
Sanctions that could be applied to punish another North Korean provocation are expected to be far tougher than those in the U.N. Security Council 2087 adopted last week to condemn the North’s December rocket launch.
Some predict that Seoul, Washington and Tokyo could adopt other tough sanctions as opposed to much-discussed sanctions such as the freeze of North Korea’s overseas financial assets and the interception of suspicious North Korean vessels.
“The UNSC Resolution 2087 stipulates that ‘significant action’ will be taken in case of an additional provocation. We urge North Korea not to take such a message lightly but carefully listen to it,” Seoul’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Cho Tai-young said during a regular briefing.
Observers said that as Seoul will take the rotating UNSC chairmanship on Feb. 1 for a month, its push for more stringent punishment could gain momentum.
“The chairmanship allows the country to set the agenda and convene a meeting even in the wee hours (of the morning) should there be an emergency case,” said a senior government official, on condition of anonymity.
Explaining that the North completed all technical preparations for another underground test, the official said that Pyongyang may have a set of motives behind it including strengthening unity among its people and troops.
He also said that Pyongyang might not regard the recent international sanctions against it as that strong as it is already under long-standing global sanctions due to its missile and nuclear development activities.
As it is aware of the serious ramifications of Pyongyang’s nuclear test, China may be more willing to support tougher international sanctions, experts forecast.
A nuclear-armed North Korea would make China lose its exclusive status as a nuclear-power in the region and could spark a nuclear arms race among regional players including Japan, experts said.
Nuclear experts said that Pyongyang could conduct multiple nuclear tests at once, using highly enriched uranium. The test would likely focus on enhancing the nuclear warhead’s explosive power and its miniaturization, they said.
(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)
