남북 장관급 회담을 위한 실무 접촉 수석대표 회의가 9일 순조롭게 진행되면서 양국간 신뢰 회복의 물꼬를 틀 수 있을 지 관심이 모아지고 있다.

양측 모두 신뢰 회복을 위해 조심스러운 입장을 취할 것이라는 것이 전문가들의 분석이다. 우리 측은 한반도의 평화를 추구하는 반면 북한은 중국과의 관계를 개선하는 동시에 개성 공단 및 금강산 관광 사업 등 경제 사업을 다시 진행시키고 싶어하기 때문이다.

판문점에서 진행된 실무 접촉 수석대표 회의는 회담 준비를 위한 행정적인 회의였다고 관계자들은 전했다.

앞으로 다가올 장관급 회담에서 양국은 비핵화와 관련된 집중 논의를 자제할 것이라는 전망이 있다. 북한 측이 핵 관련 입장을 갑자기 바꿀 가능성이 낮고 우리 측도 대화 분위기에 영향을 미칠 것을 우려하기 때문이다.

하지만 회담에서 비핵화 논의를 전혀 하지 않는다면 우리 측 보수 인사들로부터 역풍을 맞을 수 있다는 우려도 있다.

또 다른 중요한 이슈는 개성 공단 재개 여부이다. 우리 측은 저번과 같은 일방적인 개성 공단 폐쇄가 반복되지 않도록 구체적으로 명시화 해주기를 요구할 가능성이 있다. 반면 북한 측은 개성 공단 직원들의 월급 인상 및 공단 확장을 요구할 수 잇다. 

금강산 관광 재개 또한 또 다른 중요한 안건이다. 금강산 재개를 위해서 우리 측은 우리 국민들의 안전을 위한 구체적인 조치를 요구할 가능성이 있다.

전문가들은 이산가족 상봉과 관련 문제만큼은 긍정적으로 전망한다. 마지막 이산가족 상봉은 2010년 가을이었다.

우리측은 이산가족 상봉과 같은 인도적인 안건이 양국 간의 신뢰 회복에 있어 매우 중요하다는 입장이다. 양국의 합의가 비교적 쉬운 문제부터 신뢰 회복의 물꼬를 트자는 것이다.

북한 측이 예전과 같이 ‘군사적 도발-대화 시도-경제 원조 받기’ 의 전략을 반복할 수 있다는 우려도 여전히 있다.

(코리아헤럴드)

<관련 영문 기사>

Seoul’s peninsular trust building could gain traction

Experts say two Koreas may exercise caution, restraint to maintain dialogue mood

NEWS ANALYSIS

By Song Sang-ho

The inter-Korean ministerial talks slated for Wednesday are expected to help spur Seoul’s “peninsular trust-building” initiative, which had remained dormant amid North Korea’s recent saber-rattling.

Experts said both sides might exercise caution not to derail trust-building efforts as Seoul pursues an enduring peace while Pyongyang seeks to restore ties with Beijing and revive lucrative inter-Korean projects such as the industrial park in Gaeseong and tours to Mount Geumgang.

But tricky bilateral issues would not be readily settled through one high-level gathering -- a reason why both should exert restraint not to bite off more than they can chew and lose a rare chance to mend fences with each other, they noted.

At the truce village of Panmunjeom Sunday, the two Koreas held what Seoul officials described as “administrative, technical” working-level talks to discuss the agenda, venue and date of the ministerial-level meeting, and the size of their delegations.

The first working-level talks since February 2011 were held a day after presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping clarified their positions against the North’s nuclear armament during their first summit in California.

“It is hard to address all pending issues once and for all through this gathering. Both sides would seek to settle them step by step, from a broader, more comprehensive perspective, and follow-up sessions would also continue after the ministers‘ meeting,” said Cho Bong-hyun, a senior researcher at the Industrial Bank of Korea.

During the upcoming talks, both sides are expected to refrain from delving into the denuclearization issue as Pyongyang, which proclaimed itself as nuclear-armed in its Constitution last year, might not abruptly change its position, and Seoul emphasizing too much on denuclearization could dampen the mood for dialogue.

But from Seoul’s perspective, it could face a backlash should it not make any mention of the nuclear issue given that conservatives in the South argue atop the agenda should be ensuring security by urging the North to renounce its nuclear ambitions.

Some observers said Seoul could reiterate its stance against the North’s nuclear program during the high-level talks and urge it to return to the long-stalled multilateral aid-for-denuclearization talks.

Another major agenda item is the resumption of the industrial park in Gaeseong. It was suspended as Pyongyang barred entry of personnel and cargo from South Korea on April 3 and kept its 53,000 workers, employed by 123 South Korean firms, from going to work on April 9.

Seoul is expected to demand that Pyongyang make a legally binding commitment to ensure it would not repeat such a unilateral suspension of the park. The North, in return, could demand that Seoul raise workers’ wages and expand the complex from which it raked in more than $90 million a year.

To reopen the tours to the Geumgang resort off the North’s east coast, Seoul is likely to demand concrete, effective measures to ensure the safety of tourists. The tour program was halted after a North Korean solider shot dead a South Korean tourist who strayed into an off-limits zone around the resort in July 2008.

Apart from the safety issue, Seoul might also have to ensure that bilateral agreements over the tour program would be reinstated.

The agreements have been invalidated since 2011 when Pyongyang unilaterally terminated the 50-year exclusive tourism rights of Seoul’s Hyundai Asan and enacted a special international tourism law to induce foreign investment into the program.

Observers largely remain positive over the prospect of the reunions of separated families -- an issue that has so far been relatively easily settled. The last reunions were held between October and November 2010 at Mount Geumgang.

For Seoul, such humanitarian issues are crucial to building a basic level of trust with Pyongyang. Under its peninsular trust-building process, it seeks to build trust first on relatively easily agreeable issues and gradually expand areas of cooperation including security.

“We will do our best based on the spirits of the process, which is to accumulate trust, beginning with small things,” Chun Hae-sung, Seoul’s Unification Ministry’s policy chief, told reporters before engaging in the working-level meeting with the North Korean delegation.

But concern for Seoul is that Pyongyang could repeat the same tactic of launching provocations, seeking dialogue and getting economic assistance. Park has long stressed she would break such a pattern.

Huh Moon-young, a senior fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said the North could be insincere when they agreed to the inter-Korean talks ahead of the U.S.-China summit. But he stressed Pyongyang was not in a position to manipulate the situation to its own benefits for now.

“Should the North come to talks with the South without sincerity, the regime would face tough challenges in the future, and could also face its demise,” he said.

He stressed, in particular, an increasingly disadvantageous situation for North Korea in which Beijing has been getting closer to Seoul amid the reclusive state’s provocative moves.

“Amid deteriorating economic travails and bad relations with the outside world, the regime’s legitimacy could be challenged and its system to control people could also weaken,” he said.

“If Pyongyang severed ties with the South, continued to develop weapons of mass destruction, Beijing would no longer support them and Chinese strategists’ argument that the peninsula should be unified under South Korea’s initiative would further spread.”

(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)