Markets were rocked last week by news that a key gauge of manufacturing activity in China fell to a six-and-a-half-year low in September, the latest sign of slowdown in growth for the world’s second-biggest economy.

“For most commodities, a ‘hard landing’ in China would be a far greater threat than a gradual tightening from the Fed,” research firm Capital Economics said.

It said that the manufacturing data is likely to improve over the remainder of the year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve held off raising interest rates during its September meeting, but on Thursday Fed chief Janet Yellen said she still expects a lift-off this year and that concerns about weaker global growth likely will not affect that plan.

Focus this week “is likely to remain on China and particularly the equity market, which has recently shown signs of stabilising, and on the U.S. ahead of the employment report on Friday”, Capital Economics said in a market commentary.

A rise in interest rates would likely boost the U.S. currency, making dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of weaker units, hurting demand.

Prices are also under pressure owing to the prospect of Iranian oil returning to the oversupplied market following a landmark nuclear deal with major world powers reached in July.

Under the agreement, the west will lift crippling economic sanctions if Iran curbs its nuclear ambitions, allowing the country to increase its oil exports. Tehran has denied western claims it is aiming to build an atomic bomb.

Prices are expected to be volatile during the week, analysts said.

“With no major economic data announcements during the week except for the U.S. unemployment rate due next Friday, crude oil prices will continue to seesaw,” said Sanjeev Gupta, who heads the Asia Pacific oil and gas practice at professional services firm EY. (AFP)