The export-driven Korean economy is expected to set another record in trade early this week as the nation’s trade volume will reach the $1 trillion mark again this year for the second consecutive year.

The Ministry of Knowledge Economy has anticipated the milestone since the start of this month as the nation’s outbound and inbound shipments hit $503.2 billion and $476.4 billion, respectively, as of the end of November. Exports of oil and petrochemical products have led exports this year, contributing to about 18.7 percent of the total exports for the past 11 months, according to the ministry.

In addition, Korea has already become the world’s eighth-largest trade giant in the global market, a one-notch rise from last year, based on trade volume as of November.

The government celebrated the nation’s trade performance ahead of the 49th Trade Day on Dec. 5, awarding best-performing exporters of the year. It cited tariff cuts under a free trade agreement in the U.S. and European Union, improved performance of small and medium-sized exporters, and rising shipments to emerging economies, including Southeast Asian countries and Middle Eastern countries, as key factors propping up exports amid the continued global economic downturn.

Regarding the outlook for trade next year, however, industry watchers are divided. The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency issued a positive outlook for the nation’s trade last week based on a survey of overseas buyers and staff at Korean companies in 81 countries. The brisk outlook comes as exports to China, the nation’s largest export market, are expected to rise next year by about 3.3 percent on-year.

Exports to China, which had risen by more than 20 percent per year between 2000 and 2010, continued a downward trend from 2011. Growth of outbound shipments to the world’s most populous nation fell to 14.8 percent last year before plummeting to minus 0.6 percent up to November this year due to China’s growth slowing amid the global economic slump.

In contrast to the state-run trade promotion agency, private economic think tanks were cautious about the outlook for exports next year. The Hyundai Research Institute issued a negative outlook for exports in 2013, pointing out slowing export growth and rising uncertainties surrounding the global economy.

“It is meaningful for Korea to keep it $1 trillion trade club membership this year. But we have to take the annual export growth more seriously. Exports could post negative growth this year over 2012 and Korea is highly likely to face the same situation next year without a turnaround in the global economy,’’ HRI researcher Lim Hee-jung said.

“It is important for Korea to seek diversification of its key export markets and to develop more high-value-added export items.”

To keep the nation’s export volume afloat, the ministry has taken measures to revamp the structure of Korea’s key industries. It tries to develop new growth engines, including bio-health, software and biotechnology-based industries, while supporting the advancement of the nation’s flagship infrastructure industries like steel and shipbuilding and plant building sectors.

Another priority of the ministry is to strengthen competitiveness of small and medium-sized exporters. Export growth driven by SMEs rose 3.2 percent between January and September this year from the same period a year ago, while export growth driven by big companies hit minus 2.4 percent in the same period.

By Seo Jee-yeon  (jyseo@heraldcorp.com)