It is again the time for political regrouping. The half century of the Republic of Korea’s modern political history has recorded repeated realignment of political parties ahead of major elections, even during the military-backed authoritarian rule. But history also shows that hurriedly assembled new parties have not done well in elections.

This time, there is an unusual factor. Parties are scrambling to regroup after reading the writing on the wall in the mayoral by-election in Seoul last month. As voters frustrated by the perennially battling partisan politics chose a “people’s candidate,” civic activist Park Won-soon, they saw no future under the present leadership lineups, platforms and titles.

They have the common goal of survival and winning a national mandate, but the ruling and opposition groups are taking completely different paths in their current renewal drives. In the Grand National Party, both the pro-Lee Myung-bak and pro-Park Geun-hye factions are trying to recruit fresh, popular figures from the outside and remove undesirable members from the rival group. One major variable will be whether any of the two factions will seek to ally or merge with a new party being promoted by Park Se-il, a former GNP policymaker who now heads a conservative research body.

On the other hand, the main opposition Democratic Party has set the grand scheme of integrating all opposition groups, not excluding the quasi-conservative Liberty Forward Party and the radical Democratic Labor Party. DP leaders have set the schedule of launching a unified opposition party in a “national convention” on Dec. 17, although some of the targeted minor parties have openly refused to join the opposition union.

The whole picture is still very fluid, however. The greatest question mark is what political choice Ahn Cheol-soo will eventually make and when. A joint meeting of the DP’s executive members and leading loyalists of the late president Roh Moo-hyun, joined by Seoul Mayor Park, openly invited Ahn to take part in the projected united opposition party. They rather agreed to form a party “in a manner that is acceptable to Ahn Cheol-soo.”

The next parliamentary election is less than five months away. The current “new party” moves of GNP factions, coupled with Park Se-il’s calls from the outside for a grand union of all centrist and right-wing forces, are stirring the ranks of the ruling party, but there is not enough time to take an orderly process of regrouping and make the rebirth of a viable, trustworthy government party.

A great hurdle that lies ahead of the GNP is the nomination for the April elections. It will be a great test for the party as to whether it can stand united or fall apart. Unless the rival factions exhibit a mutually magnanimous attitude and share constituencies through fair, transparent selection of candidates, no one can predict what will happen in the governing party. Given the present lack of cohesion and central leadership in the GNP, any internal feud over nomination will quickly lead to disintegration of the party, possibly before the elections.

The recent history also reveals that the final year of an administration is a time when distance between the ruling party and the single-term president grows rapidly, often with the chief executive troubled by various improprieties involving his family and close aides. The president, free of concerns with reelection, tended to be more engrossed in external affairs, such as a summit with the North Korean chief, than helping secure more seats for the government party in the legislature.

Temptation will grow for the party’s factional leaders to make a fresh start under a new executive lineup, more appealing platforms and possibly a new party name, after removing various internal elements of harassment. But they should again be reminded that voters are not impressed by mere changes in party appearance. What they are looking for is evidence of real change of content to become a party that truly cares the wellbeing of the people.