With the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. having agreed to consider another delay in the transfer of wartime operational control, attention is being drawn to when the handover will finally occur.

Observers say that the OPCON transfer, currently scheduled for December 2015, is most likely to come in the early 2020s after Seoul has established its missile defense program and preemptive strike system to counter North Korea’s escalating missile and nuclear threats.

The allies’ final decision on the date of the transfer is expected to be made when their defense chiefs meet for their annual Security Consultative Meeting slated to take place in Washington in October.

President Barack Obama mentioned the reconsideration of the timing for the first time during his visit to Seoul last month. Last October, the allies’ militaries agreed to consult over the delay of the transfer based on their fresh evaluation of “conditions” following Seoul’s request.

Seoul has called on Washington to reconsider the timing in light of increased nuclear threats from the North, which conducted a third nuclear test in February 2013 following its successful launch of a long-range rocket in December 2012.

The allies have been discussing the OPCON transfer through a bilateral working-level group since late last year. The core issues of their consultations are North Korean threats, South Korea’s capability to cope with the threats and overall security conditions.

The OPCON transfer has been a highly divisive issue in Korea.

Those supporting the transfer say that Seoul needs to reduce its heavy reliance on the U.S. and strengthen its self-defense capabilities. Some approach the issue from the perspective of national pride.

The proponents also point out that particularly with the intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry, Seoul needs to improve its independent operational capabilities to ensure that it has strategic leverage with the two great powers.

But opponents of the transfer maintain that Seoul is not yet fully ready to cope with North Korean threats, and that relying on the U.S., the world’s strongest military power, is the most cost-effective way to ensure national security.

To counter North Korea’s missile and nuclear threats, Seoul has been working on creating the Kill Chain preemptive strike system and the Korea Air and Missile Defense program, a low-tier, multiple interception system.

But the systems are to be established in the 2020s despite Pyongyang’s accelerated efforts to enhance its missile and nuclear technologies.

The opponents also note that the transfer would send the wrong signal to Pyongyang, which has become more unpredictable under the leadership of the young, inexperienced ruler Kim Jong-un.

In 2007, Seoul and Washington agreed to transfer OPCON in April 2012 as the then-Roh Moo-hyun administration sought to enhance military self-reliance and “balance the alliance” with the U.S.

But amid continuing provocations by North Korea including the sinking of the corvette Cheonan that killed 46 sailors, the leaders of the two countries agreed in 2010 to push back the OPCON transfer to December 2015.

Seoul retook peacetime operational control from Washington in 1994 in recognition of the need to make the alliance a more complementary partnership instead of relying wholly on the U.S.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)