It does not take much expertise in North Korean affairs to know what is behind the anti-South Korean hysteria Pyongyang is exhibiting these days. First of all, a hate-the-South campaign is the best stimulant to generate people’s loyalty to the new leader, who suddenly took over power upon the death of his father three months ago.

Kim Jong-un, the “supreme dignity” of the North, was in Panmunjeom last Saturday. He exhorted People’s Army personnel at the truce village to be on “the highest state of alert.” He was quoted as saying, “The enemy will sign not an armistice agreement but capitulations when a new war breaks out.” In joint military-civilian rallies in Pyongyang, commanders vowed to “crush Lee Myung-bak and his traitor clique in one stroke.”

The massive gathering of 150,000 military personnel and civilians at Pyongyang’s main plaza on Sunday proved the great ability of North Korean authorities to organize such an event at short notice. The decision to stage the demonstrations must have been made after Pyongyang and Washington reached an initial agreement for the North to halt its nuclear programs and the U.S. to supply food aid last week. It has been Pyongyang’s diplomatic pattern to deride Seoul whenever an approach is made to Washington.

The stubborn North Korean strategists must also be tempted to render some influence on the elections in South Korea. Intimidating the Southern people with the threat of an imminent military attack could help gather some votes for the progressive parties with a more flexible stance toward the North. Conservatives staying in power would mean continued difficulties in getting food aid from the South and resuming inter-Korean economic cooperation projects. However, this can be counterproductive as “northerly winds” used to help the government side.

Last but not least, the tough words could be an act of retaliation for Seoul’s intensifying drive to protect North Korean refugees in China from the perils of repatriation to the North. But the show of militarism will only emphasize repression the North Koreans will face back in their country after deportation and will therefore bring harder pressure on Beijing to reconsider their harsh treatment of people caught after crossing the border into China.

The campaign of verbal violence will cease sometime but Seoul should still be prepared for the eventuality that the hysteria develops into insanity, turning threats into action.