As is often said, a crisis that is already known may not be a crisis any longer. Those who perceive themselves to be at the risk of being exposed to a crisis are certain to take all precautions possible for their own protection.
But the axiom does not appear to apply to the current sovereign-debt crisis in Europe. The crisis came to a head in 2008 when Ireland was added to the PIGS group of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain to form a new pejorative term ― PIIGS.
The crisis, which the European Union has failed to get under control, is rapidly spreading to other parts of the world. Growth is stunted not just throughout the eurozone but in China, India and other emerging markets. The recovery is slowing in the United States as well.
Korea, too, has started to feel the pinch, with its exports declining for the third consecutive month in May. It needs to start taking protective action if it is to avoid being engulfed by the European crisis.
The first order of business will be for the Bank of Korea to determine what to do with its benchmark rate, which has been kept at 3.25 percent for the past 11 months. But the central bank does not have much room for maneuver, given that the rate is already low.
Many foreign investment banks and other financial market watchers say that, given the European crisis, a rate increase is out of the question. Instead, they predict that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will keep the rate intact for the 12th consecutive month when it is called into session on Friday.
Should the domestic economic conditions deteriorate any further, the central bank may feel the pressure to cut the rate. Some already say that a rate cut is a plausible option, with the consumer price index remaining below the 3 percent level in recent months.
But a rate cut must not be considered unless the Korean economy is at the risk of being thrown into a tailspin. Caution is advised, given that latest increases in utility charges, transportation fees and other prices are keeping inflationary expectations high.
Another issue that needs to be dealt with in connection with the European crisis is whether or not the government will increase spending. Minister of Strategy and Finance Bahk Jae-wan says the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund and other funds under the control of the administration will be able to increase their spending by up to 30 percent.
An increase in spending by the government funds should appeal to the finance minister because he would not have to go through the cumbersome process of obtaining approval from the National Assembly. But the downside is that it would not amount to much.
A more appropriate approach will be for the administration to draw up an extra budget bill and send it to the National Assembly for approval. True, the bill’s passage will require the difficult task of securing support from the opposition Democratic United Party as well as the ruling Saenuri Party at a time when President Lee Myung-bak’s administration is in its final year in office.
Nor will it appeal to the Lee administration if it means that it has to abandon its commitment to balancing the budget next year. The nation will probably have to take on additional debt if it is to spend its way out of the looming economic crash.
Among the economic think tanks advocating additional spending while opposing a rate cut is the Korea Institute of Finance, which says it is more important at the moment for the government to keep the nation from falling into a deep recession than to pursue fiscal prudence. It calls on the administration to focus spending on areas that have a large capacity for job creation.
At this time of year, the administration reviews its yearly economic management plan usually for minor readjustments. But its hands are full this time, with the urgent task of making all the preparations against the European crisis. It has little time to waste. It needs to put itself on an emergency footing now.
But the axiom does not appear to apply to the current sovereign-debt crisis in Europe. The crisis came to a head in 2008 when Ireland was added to the PIGS group of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain to form a new pejorative term ― PIIGS.
The crisis, which the European Union has failed to get under control, is rapidly spreading to other parts of the world. Growth is stunted not just throughout the eurozone but in China, India and other emerging markets. The recovery is slowing in the United States as well.
Korea, too, has started to feel the pinch, with its exports declining for the third consecutive month in May. It needs to start taking protective action if it is to avoid being engulfed by the European crisis.
The first order of business will be for the Bank of Korea to determine what to do with its benchmark rate, which has been kept at 3.25 percent for the past 11 months. But the central bank does not have much room for maneuver, given that the rate is already low.
Many foreign investment banks and other financial market watchers say that, given the European crisis, a rate increase is out of the question. Instead, they predict that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will keep the rate intact for the 12th consecutive month when it is called into session on Friday.
Should the domestic economic conditions deteriorate any further, the central bank may feel the pressure to cut the rate. Some already say that a rate cut is a plausible option, with the consumer price index remaining below the 3 percent level in recent months.
But a rate cut must not be considered unless the Korean economy is at the risk of being thrown into a tailspin. Caution is advised, given that latest increases in utility charges, transportation fees and other prices are keeping inflationary expectations high.
Another issue that needs to be dealt with in connection with the European crisis is whether or not the government will increase spending. Minister of Strategy and Finance Bahk Jae-wan says the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund and other funds under the control of the administration will be able to increase their spending by up to 30 percent.
An increase in spending by the government funds should appeal to the finance minister because he would not have to go through the cumbersome process of obtaining approval from the National Assembly. But the downside is that it would not amount to much.
A more appropriate approach will be for the administration to draw up an extra budget bill and send it to the National Assembly for approval. True, the bill’s passage will require the difficult task of securing support from the opposition Democratic United Party as well as the ruling Saenuri Party at a time when President Lee Myung-bak’s administration is in its final year in office.
Nor will it appeal to the Lee administration if it means that it has to abandon its commitment to balancing the budget next year. The nation will probably have to take on additional debt if it is to spend its way out of the looming economic crash.
Among the economic think tanks advocating additional spending while opposing a rate cut is the Korea Institute of Finance, which says it is more important at the moment for the government to keep the nation from falling into a deep recession than to pursue fiscal prudence. It calls on the administration to focus spending on areas that have a large capacity for job creation.
At this time of year, the administration reviews its yearly economic management plan usually for minor readjustments. But its hands are full this time, with the urgent task of making all the preparations against the European crisis. It has little time to waste. It needs to put itself on an emergency footing now.
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Articles by Korea Herald