[Editorial] Exports and won’s rise
Corporations must brace for won’s gain
By Korea HeraldPublished : Nov. 3, 2013 - 19:04
Korea broke fresh ground in exports when its monthly shipments abroad topped $50 billion in October. The nation, whose economic growth is driven by exports, demonstrated its prowess as an exporter again.
The achievement can be better understood when it is put into historical perspective. Korea has come a long way since 1964, the year when exports surpassed the $100 million mark for the first time. It deserves to pat itself on the back for the phenomenal growth.
What was still better, the nation recorded trade surpluses for the 21 consecutive months, with exports exceeding imports by $4.9 billion last month. The trade surpluses, economic experts say, will help the 2013 current account surplus top 5 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product.
A provisional tally put monthly exports at $50.5 billion growing as much as 7.3 percent from a year ago when the global economy was stuck in a protracted slump. They were led by mobile communication devices, auto vehicles and semiconductors, whose shipments jumped 33 percent, 21 percent and 15 percent, respectively.
Now the question is whether or not Korea can keep the momentum rolling. Among the optimists is the Korea Institute of Finance, which says exports in 2014 will surpass this year’s 5.4 percent growth estimate by 1.3 points.
But this forecast is anchored on a shaky assumption that the Korean currency’s annual average exchange would be 1,074 won per U.S. dollar in 2014. With the exchange rate now hovering around the 1,060-won-per-dollar level, the Korean government is under mounting pressure to abandon the idea of pushing its currency down.
The U.S. Treasury Department, citing a report from the International Monetary Fund, claims that the won is undervalued by 2 to 8 percent against the dollar. It warns against market intervention by the Korean foreign exchange authorities.
Korea, the U.S. department claims, holds more foreign exchange reserves than are needed. It apparently suspects the Bank of Korea is buying up dollars to weaken the won. It also demands Korea take action to reduce its reliance on exports for growth.
Open to debate is the U.S. claim that the won is undervalued by as much as 8 percent. It has gained nearly 6 percent during the past year. In addition, a domestic business daily said the U.S. claim was unwarranted, saying that the won’s BIS effective exchange rate index rose from 84 in February 2009 to 106 in September this year.
But the Korean currency is destined to gain when, as expected, growth continues to be generated by rising exports. The foreign exchange authorities will have to refrain from intervening in the market unless the market turns chaotic as a result of an upsurge in the won’s value.
Now Korean corporations will have to brace for the won’s continuous gain and its impact on their exports. For its part, the government will have to take seriously the International Monetary Fund’s advice to encourage consumer spending if it is to absorb the shock from a potential slowdown in exports.
The achievement can be better understood when it is put into historical perspective. Korea has come a long way since 1964, the year when exports surpassed the $100 million mark for the first time. It deserves to pat itself on the back for the phenomenal growth.
What was still better, the nation recorded trade surpluses for the 21 consecutive months, with exports exceeding imports by $4.9 billion last month. The trade surpluses, economic experts say, will help the 2013 current account surplus top 5 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product.
A provisional tally put monthly exports at $50.5 billion growing as much as 7.3 percent from a year ago when the global economy was stuck in a protracted slump. They were led by mobile communication devices, auto vehicles and semiconductors, whose shipments jumped 33 percent, 21 percent and 15 percent, respectively.
Now the question is whether or not Korea can keep the momentum rolling. Among the optimists is the Korea Institute of Finance, which says exports in 2014 will surpass this year’s 5.4 percent growth estimate by 1.3 points.
But this forecast is anchored on a shaky assumption that the Korean currency’s annual average exchange would be 1,074 won per U.S. dollar in 2014. With the exchange rate now hovering around the 1,060-won-per-dollar level, the Korean government is under mounting pressure to abandon the idea of pushing its currency down.
The U.S. Treasury Department, citing a report from the International Monetary Fund, claims that the won is undervalued by 2 to 8 percent against the dollar. It warns against market intervention by the Korean foreign exchange authorities.
Korea, the U.S. department claims, holds more foreign exchange reserves than are needed. It apparently suspects the Bank of Korea is buying up dollars to weaken the won. It also demands Korea take action to reduce its reliance on exports for growth.
Open to debate is the U.S. claim that the won is undervalued by as much as 8 percent. It has gained nearly 6 percent during the past year. In addition, a domestic business daily said the U.S. claim was unwarranted, saying that the won’s BIS effective exchange rate index rose from 84 in February 2009 to 106 in September this year.
But the Korean currency is destined to gain when, as expected, growth continues to be generated by rising exports. The foreign exchange authorities will have to refrain from intervening in the market unless the market turns chaotic as a result of an upsurge in the won’s value.
Now Korean corporations will have to brace for the won’s continuous gain and its impact on their exports. For its part, the government will have to take seriously the International Monetary Fund’s advice to encourage consumer spending if it is to absorb the shock from a potential slowdown in exports.
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Articles by Korea Herald